SHORT-TERM: THE MARKET IS RANGE BOUNDED BUT THE UP MOMENTUM IS WEAKENING
Still no conclusion today, the SPY is stuck in a range. However, resistance or support, the more times it’s being tested the weaker it is, so chances are pretty high that we’ll see a breakout on the upside tomorrow, and via FOMC, as forecasted in 01/21 Market Recap, very likely we’ll see a new high.
On the other hand, bears still have hopes. Besides the reversal of reversal of reversal in those days which is a typical pattern for an important top, if you still remember my N vs N rule, then you should see, apparently the up momentum is weakening, so again, no need to despair (as I’ve sensed from my blog and my forum).
About FOMC tomorrow, except as mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary: generally bullish and roller-coaster show, the intraday pattern tends to go steady higher and a little bit pullback before the close. The chart below is from Bespoke.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/18 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN
Since even the short-term I have no answer for whether the pullback is over, so whether the intermediate-term was topped, we’ll have to wait and see.
SEASONALITY: THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF EACH MONTH SINCE AUGUST 2009 WERE BEARISH
See 01/21 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|NDX Weekly||UP||BPNDX is way too overbought.|
|IWM Weekly||DOWN||No lower low to confirm yet, but the sell off is strong, so downgrade the trend to down from up.|
|TLT||0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?|
|FXE||3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): 1-2-3 trend change, UUP could be in downtrend.|
|FXE Weekly||UP||No higher low to confirm yet but the rebound is strong, so I upgrade the trend to up from down.|
|GLD||1-2-3 trend change, GLD may fall into a downtrend.|
|GLD Weekly||?||Testing long term trend line.|
|USO||*May fall into a down trend. Could be a Double Top formed on WTIC. Need follow-through.|
|XLF Weekly||UP||Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.|
|IYR||Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.|
|XLB||01/19 S||Testing major trend line and MA(50).|
|XLB Weekly||DOWN||BPMATE is way too overbought.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.