01/26/2011 Market Recap: Not much wiggle room left for bears


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/19,01/26 01/19 : 01/20 Next pivot date: 01/19
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU new high, so SPX will follow?
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 26 unfilled gaps, the max is 26.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down).
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign.
01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?
01/21 Market Recap: INDU up 8 weeks in a row, could mean a red next week.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight.
My Thoughts Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, it looks like so though.

SHORT-TERM: 1-2-3 TREND CHANGE STILL POSSIBLE BUT BEARS HAVE NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM LEFT

The new high today is not decisive, so the 1-2-3 trend change pattern still is possible, although there’s not much wiggle room left for bears, especially if another huge up day tomorrow then bears will have to wait for the next lengthy top procedure – pullback then rebound to test the previous high then pullback to a lower low, which in another word is, at least bulls can be safe for awhile.

SPY60min

I’ve been blah blah about the chart below, now both price and time target are finally met AT THE SAME TIME, so a top of some kind should be around, well, in theory. Frankly, I personally won’t read much into this theory, as long as there’s not even an intraday lower low (so called 1-2-3 trend change pattern as mentioned above) formed.

TimeAndPriceAnalysis

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/18 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

Since even the short-term I have no answer for whether the pullback is over, so whether the intermediate-term was topped, we’ll have to wait and see.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF EACH MONTH SINCE AUGUST 2009 WERE BEARISH

See 01/21 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/20 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly DOWN No lower low to confirm yet, but the sell off is strong, so downgrade the trend to down from up.
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly ?
FXE 3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): 1-2-3 trend change, UUP could be in downtrend.
FXE Weekly UP No higher low to confirm yet but the rebound is strong, so I upgrade the trend to up from down.
GLD 1-2-3 trend change, GLD may fall into a downtrend.
GLD Weekly ? Testing long term trend line.
GDX 12/17 S
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO May fall into a down trend. Could be a Double Top formed on WTIC. Need follow-through.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 01/25 S
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 01/19 S Testing major trend line and MA(50).
XLB Weekly DOWN BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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