03/02/2011 Market Recap: Huge rally tomorrow like what happened on Feb 1?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw.
ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat.
Short-term DOWN 02/18 High Hold short position until stop loss being hit.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 will last awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited in 69 calendar days on average.

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION UNCLEAR, I’M BEARISH BIASED THOUGH

Nothing to say today, so I’ll skip the After Bell Quick Summary. The short-term direction is unclear, so we have to wait to see in which direction the market breakout first. For now, neither has apparent edges (as far as I can see). Some people may say that today looks very much like the Jan 31, so chances are good that we’ll see a huge rally tomorrow. My guess is that we might not repeat what happened after the Jan 31, because the price bar bodies overlap each other on today’s rebound so it’s quite possible that the 2 leg up rebound has completed intraday. This is very much unlike the chart pattern on Jan 31, when the day only completed the very 1st leg up, as the nature of no overlap bars kind of rebound almost guaranteed there’d be a 2nd leg up the next day. Well, this is just a little speculation, after all, only the market action in the coming days will tell, so let’s wait and see.

1

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH

See 02/25 Market Recap for more details. For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO Clear breakout on WTIC chart.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 02/09 S
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly ? *Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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