03/03/2011 Market Recap: Could see a new high soon


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw.
ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat.
Short-term *UP 02/18 High
02/24 Low
Hold both long and short.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 will last awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited in 69 calendar days on average.

SHORT-TERM: DON’T EXPECT BIG UP TOMORROW, BUT NEW HIGH COULD BE JUST A MATTER OF TIME

Although SPY hasn’t made a higher high yet, but a strong up day like today won’t simply fail the next day, plus the statistics given by 02/23 Market Recap and 03/01 Market Recap, both are saying that the recent pullback is just a dip, so now chances are pretty good that we’ll see a new high soon. However, whether after a new high the market will go to Galaxy far far away is still a mystery as I don’t have any solid evidences yet. A general rule of thumb, an important top consists of reversal of reversal of reversal so if after the new high, the market keeps swinging up and down like we’re seeing those days then bulls still should be cautious.

SPY60min

About Non Farm Payroll day tomorrow, it’s generally bullish but since TICK closed above 1000 today, so I don’t expect it to be a big up day if not red. Also don’t forget the general Non Farm Payroll day intraday pattern – open high go lower or open low go higher.

NFP
TICK
NFPDayPattern

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH

See 02/25 Market Recap for more details. For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly *UP?
XIU.TO 02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO *ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 02/09 S
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly ? Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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