03/14/2011 Market Recap: So far only a dent!


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/12,03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/01 Market Recap: Bearish Engulfing is very bullish in 2 to 4 weeks.
03/10 Market Recap: Price overlaps so the pullback may not go far.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/04 Market Recap: OEX open interest ratio too high, could be choppy ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short is for aggressive traders only.
ST Model   *Long setup no confirmed and no longer valid.
Short-term DOWN I hold no position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A REBOUND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

I’m very very (insert as many very as you want here) disappointed in bears, no matter how bad the news is, so far bears cannot even make an impulse wave down that has NO PRICE OVERLAPPING,so how far can this pullback go, I really really (insert as many really as you want here) doubt. Trading wise, however, no matter how disappointed I am, if bulls couldn’t show strength either then the strategy still is to sell the bounce, after all, officially, now both intermediate-term and short-term are in downtrend.

SPX60min

The chart below marked all the bullish reversal days since March 2009, today perhaps is the only lower low made after a bullish reversal day (so bears finally made a DENT!), but unfortunately, the dent is not enough to cancel the Friday’s bullish reversal, so chances are very high that the market may rally hard like what exactly happened in the past.

SPYBullishReversalDay

The chart below marked all the hollow red bars at swing low since March 2009, again, the market rallied hard thereafter.

QQQQHollowRedBar

As for tomorrow FOMC, the chart below also appears bullish mostly. Frankly, I really really (insert as many really as you want here) find it’s hard to imagine that if anything, anything at all on Earth, could bring down this market!

FOMC

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT BUT STATISTICALLY BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

See 03/11 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow up 17 of last 23.
  2. March Triple Witching Day mixed last 10 years, Dow down 3 of last 4.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly UP
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly UP 1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP (weekly) Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly UP
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly UP
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly DOWN
DBA & Weekly DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.