03/15/2011 Market Recap: Another Dent!


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/12,03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/01 Market Recap: Bearish Engulfing is very bullish in 2 to 4 weeks.
03/10 Market Recap: Price overlaps so the pullback may not go far.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/04 Market Recap: OEX open interest ratio too high, could be choppy ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short is for aggressive traders only.
ST Model  
Short-term DOWN 03/11 High I hold short position overnight, slightly underwater.

SHORT-TERM: THE LOW MAY BE IN BUT EVEN SO WE COULD SEE SOME BACK AND FORTH FILLINGS AS PER PAST PATTERNS

I think you might all have guessed what I’m about to say today. Yes, I’m so-o-o-o-o-o-o-o (insert 100 “o” here) disappointed in bears. Another big down day met by aggressive dip buyers, it looks like that really really, nothing, nothing at all, could ever bring down this market. So no argue, if the past pattern, at least since March 2009, still works then the daily reversal bar formed today should be very bullish, so a bottom of some kind could be in. However, the day’s last 60 min bar is Shooting Star again which is a bearish formation while the reversal today is way too sharp and generally it means some back and forth fillings thereafter and sometimes even today’s low could be retested, so bears are not over yet. Trading wise, as now both short-term and intermediate-term are still in downtrend, so my strategy is till to sell bounces. A huge up day tomorrow then short-term I’ll be on the bull side.

SPY60min

Now have a look at all the evidences for “a bottom of some kind could be in”. Again, I have no ability to predict the future, all I can tell are the past similar patterns. As for whether the pattern works now or not, I don’t know and don’t care either as per my trading model. I’ve been very careful about my wordings although sometimes I may appear absolutely sure, that’s of course not true, in fact, as always, I’m clueless. What I’m doing here is just to present info, while whether those info is useful or not and how to use it, I don’t care either as I’m trying to be objective.

  • VIX body completely out of BB top, looks like a bottom at least recently.

VIXOutOfBB

  • The chart below highlighted in blue are all the past bottom signals that SPY ST Model issued. Not always absolutely a bottom, but should be close enough. And today, we get one.

SPYSTModel

  • SPY hollow red bar, QQQQ hollow red bar, I’ve mentioned those two charts yesterday, and today we got a double reversal bar which if the past pattern still works, should be bullish.

SPYBullishReversalDay
QQQQHollowRedBar

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT BUT STATISTICALLY BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

See 03/11 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow up 17 of last 23.
  2. March Triple Witching Day mixed last 10 years, Dow down 3 of last 4.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly UP
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly UP 1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP (weekly) Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly UP
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly UP
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly DOWN
DBA & Weekly DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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