03/23/2011 Market Recap: Bears are not over yet


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only.
ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10)
Short-term UP 03/18 Low
03/11 High
I hold both long and short overnight. The short position is trapped.

SHORT-TERM: NO CONCLUSION, BEARS ARE NOT OVER YET

No conclusion today, will have to see tomorrow. The market feels very bullish and from what I’ve remembered, a day likes today, gapped down sold off hard then had a sharp reversal and eventually closed in green, usually means more rises ahead for awhile. However, chart tells two different stories and I don’t know which one tells the truth so bears are not over yet. Trading wise, since the short-term is in an uptrend now, so the game is to buy dips.

12

My guess is some may ask if another up day tomorrow, do I still expect a lower low ahead? The chart below shows what I’ll be watching in the coming days. Bulls need prove themselves by breaking above SPX 1325 within 2 days, otherwise, according to the n vs n rule, this still is a sellable bounce.

3

One unique thing today is very low, less than 30, ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index readings. All the recent occurrences are shown in the chart below, highlighted in red. I don’t see any edges for this year although last year it could mean a top of some kind.

4

Another unique thing today is ISEE Equities Only Index larger than 200, which is normal but comparing to today’s ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index, it shows big difference in opinion – some are buying lots of equity calls like crazy while others bought huge index puts instead. The chart below, highlighted in red, shows all the recent cases when similar things happened. Again I don’t see any edges for this year although last year it could mean a top of some kind.

5

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
  2. March historically weak later in the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly DOWN
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly UP ChiOsc is way too high.
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly 03/15 S
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly DOWN
DBA & Weekly DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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