SHORT-TERM: NO CONCLUSION, BEARS ARE NOT OVER YET
No conclusion today, will have to see tomorrow. The market feels very bullish and from what I’ve remembered, a day likes today, gapped down sold off hard then had a sharp reversal and eventually closed in green, usually means more rises ahead for awhile. However, chart tells two different stories and I don’t know which one tells the truth so bears are not over yet. Trading wise, since the short-term is in an uptrend now, so the game is to buy dips.
My guess is some may ask if another up day tomorrow, do I still expect a lower low ahead? The chart below shows what I’ll be watching in the coming days. Bulls need prove themselves by breaking above SPX 1325 within 2 days, otherwise, according to the n vs n rule, this still is a sellable bounce.
One unique thing today is very low, less than 30, ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index readings. All the recent occurrences are shown in the chart below, highlighted in red. I don’t see any edges for this year although last year it could mean a top of some kind.
Another unique thing today is ISEE Equities Only Index larger than 200, which is normal but comparing to today’s ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index, it shows big difference in opinion – some are buying lots of equity calls like crazy while others bought huge index puts instead. The chart below, highlighted in red, shows all the recent cases when similar things happened. Again I don’t see any edges for this year although last year it could mean a top of some kind.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
- March historically weak later in the month.
For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|IWM & Weekly||UP|
|SSEC & Weekly||UP|
|EEM & Weekly||DOWN|
|XIU & Weekly||UP||ChiOsc is way too high.|
|TLT & Weekly||UP|
|FXE & Weekly||UP|
|GLD & Weekly||UP|
|GDX & Weekly||03/15 S|
|USO & Weekly||UP|
|XLE & Weekly||UP|
|XLF & Weekly||DOWN|
|IYR & Weekly||UP|
|XLB & Weekly||DOWN|
|DBA & Weekly||DOWN|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.