06/17/2011 Market Outlook (The rebound gets weaker and weaker)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Clueless about the short-term direction (as always), temporarily bearish biased, the excuse is statistics and seasonality are not bull friendly the next week:

Chart pattern wise, after tossed a coin, I decided that the the 3rd push down (see 06/17 Trading Signals) has not completed yet. Although, lower low is not the must for the 3rd push therefore the Friday’s intraday pullback could be counted as the final push down, but see another chart below, looks to me the rebound is the weakest of all recently, so there’s a little little little little (insert another 100 little here) edges that the 3rd push down might not be over yet.

3PushDownWeakerRebound

Nothing new to say. Normalized CPCE might have made a new history while Net % of all Sentimentrader’s Indicators at Extreme yells that huge number of Sentimentrader indicators are arguing on the upside, however, historically, it’s not so pleasant after QQQ being down 7 consecutive weeks, although we could always ask: will the 3rd time be different? All in all, I won’t be surprised that the market keeps going up the next week, but whether the low was in, we’ll have to wait and see.

NormalizedCPCEIndicatorsAtExtremesQQQWeekly

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though.
DAX & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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