11/03/2022 Portfolio Update

Trading Signals:

Since DGP day low is higher than the entry price, so set the breakeven stop loss and half out.

UUP long was filled today.

The lesson I learnt today is: Never argue with a 80%+ winning system. The worse I feel, the better chances it could be a winning trade.

15 Comments

Anonymous on November 3, 2011 at 11:16 pm

Thanks Cobra for adding the last closing price and unrealized gain/loss column.

Cobra on November 3, 2011 at 11:26 pm

You’re welcome.

Anonymous on November 3, 2011 at 11:17 pm

Cobra, which trade did you feel bad about? Thanks.

Cobra on November 3, 2011 at 11:19 pm

I felt bad about buying so much yesterday. 🙂
- Anonymous on November 3, 2011 at 11:35 pm
  
  Hmm… I have started to think that sometimes your systems/models need to be followed blindly in order to win. Thanks Cobra for all your hard work. You are truly generous with your time and efforts. Totally selfless without any returns – just thank yous!
  - Cobra on November 3, 2011 at 11:40 pm
    
    Any system, you’ll have to follow religiously otherwise the back test statistics has now meaning.
    
    This portfolio system is not properly tested, so don’t follow, wait at least a few months to see how it handles the losers especially if they do automatically hedge each other. For example, now the system long bond and dollar, which should be a good hedge to oil and equity long, right? So theoretically it’s very safe now?

Pady Srini on November 4, 2011 at 6:10 am

“Never argue with a 80% winning system”

There cannot be more truth ever said. Period.

I have a trading system which is working wonders. Shorted from 1285 to 1220. Then the system said “go long”. I said – no way. Well, 40 pts is not pocket change !!! Lesson learnt.

Anonymous on November 4, 2011 at 8:32 am

I disagree, one could illustrate many systems that had 80% winning rates that eventually began to fail on a regular basis, this happened to many systems in the 2000’s that had previously worked for several decades running

systems don’t last forever, and so therefore you eventually need to “argue” with them

further, statistically I do not believe the actual number here is 80%, it has not generated enough trades to reduce the error rate to a level at which that can be said with confidence
- Cobra on November 4, 2011 at 9:46 am
  
  The number you see here now is 100%. 🙂
  
  I tested on each asset, so far the winning rate WAS way above 80%, but not only as you said, a 80% winning system would fail eventually, but also, if you don’t exit well, even 90% winning system wins you no money. So it’s just for fun. I’m really interested to see how and when this fun ends. 🙂
  - Anonymous on November 4, 2011 at 8:06 pm
    
    lol, cobra, when you get to 100% I’m going all in 🙂
    
    thanks as always for all your hard work, awesome blog

Pady Srini on November 4, 2011 at 6:13 am

cobra,

Can we piggy back on the portfolio system trades ? When do you start these trades ? Do you inform in “intraday watering” immediately after you start the trade ?

Thanks

Cobra on November 4, 2011 at 9:48 am

I give “buy stop” the day before it’s signaled. It has nothing to do with intraday watering.

I back test the signals since year 2007 I believe. It’s manual back test, so cannot test long and so that’s why I publicly test here.

gerald langelier on November 4, 2011 at 7:17 am

EURUSD Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurusd-fibo.html

gerald langelier on November 4, 2011 at 7:25 am

CADUSD Update Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/cadusd-time-ratio.html

jmy_1uk on November 5, 2011 at 6:18 am

Hi Cobra,thanks for your message.I clicked on the link and it seems to work ok.I also asked someone else to try it and they said it took them to my blog so I guess the problem sorted ? Thanks Chartrambler

15 Comments

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