SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TREND IS UP, HODING BOTH LONG (TRAPPED) AND SHORT (TRAPPED) OVER THE WEEKEND
The bottom line, a red Non Farm Payroll more likely means a reversal which in our today’s case would be a top. I don’t know but giving the fact that Rydex (retailers) traders are very very bullish now, the signal might have some creditability.
Short-term Model did nothing today so no screenshot here. Enjoy your weekend!
thx,ding
SP500 NAS EURUSD Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/sp500-nas-eurusd-time-ratio.html
i see potential bullish island reversal next Monday.
http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2011/11/forecast-for-next-week-made-at-mid-day.html
Do you know what you are talking about? A bullish island reversal? A typical bullish island reversal would be e.g. if SPX were down out of the channel for a day or two and then back up a day later, with a gap on the down and a gap on the up.
At the moment SPX is in the October 5th uptrend – don’t quite see where your bullish reversal fits in…
Posted this yesterday: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2011/11032011-trading-signals/#comment-355175297
Edited chart below. I think the high probability expectation is within the green shaded area for the next few months (which means the low probability play is expecting something outside . . .). Just my 2 cents. Market structure extrapolations.
BPNYA +0.32%, BPCOMPQ +1.28%, BPNDX +1.47%, BPSPX +0.27%, BPOEX and BP INDU flat – small caps and tech leading upwards. BPNYA chart does not look bearish:
Small 15 min chart shows Monday/Tuesday’s playing field. For reasons not shown here (such as seasonality, support and momentum) I’m in the bullish camp.
UUP is at serious resistance here; 200-day and neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. This, and the fact we are seeing a serious number of breakouts in small and mid cap growth stocks indicates to me that smart money is willing to accept more risk and the market is in a wall of worry situation. I’m mildly bullish, but willing to be wrong if the UUP can break higher. Downside risk can be reasonably managed with many of the small cap breakouts here, so I believe it’s worth a shot.