SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Two cents:

  1. The big picture, I still suspect that a top of some kind was in or very close. Pay attention to “Suspect”, I’m not short yet. Again, Market Report and Trading are different. If you don’t allow me to guess top or bottom while instead simply repeat everyday that the trend is up (or down, well usually I’m not allowed to say trend is down), would you come here to read my report? Trading on the other hand, is different, the less guess the better because the most important thing is to follow the trend, so we should try our best not to front run the market.
  2. The intraday reversal today is not enough to convince me that we’d be up huge from here because from the chart below, still the red line above is not decisively broken so still could be a back test of the previous high before rollover, especially such a back test is already 2 legged, which is not a form of strong push up, instead, it could be a sign that bulls are exhausted. 

SPY15min

As for why I suspect that a top of some kind was in or very close, I’ve presented 2 reasons in the 11/04 Market Outlook:

  1. Red Non Farm Payroll day usually means a reversal which in our current case, means to reverse down.
  2. Rydex Traders (retailers) are way too bullish.

And today I’d like you to meet our 3rd witness, a record high of NATV:NYTV, which is a very reliable top signal. That said, everything has exceptions and this signal is no exception, so if you think this time is different, well, sure, as you wish…

NATVvsNYTV

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

两点说明:

  1. 大方向,我还是怀疑the top was in or very close了。注意,只是怀疑,我并没有做空。Again,Market Report和Trading是不一样的。Market Report,你不让我猜顶或者底,天天告诉你trend is up,你会来看吗?Trading则一定要顺势,尽可能不要front run the market。
  2. 今天的盘中反转还不能说明下面要大涨特涨了,因为从图形上看,并没有decisively上破红线,因此还是有back test the previous high before rollover的嫌疑,特别是这个back test居然用了2 leg,而不是一气呵成,这是比较吃力的形状,有牛牛力竭的嫌疑。所以,看明天吧。

SPY15min

关于我怀疑the top was in or very close的理由,在11/04 Market Outlook里说了两条:

  1. Red Non Farm Payroll往往意味着转折。
  2. Rydex Traders (retailers)太牛。

今天我看到了第三个理由,NATV:NYTV spike了,这是个可靠性非常高的信号。当然啦,啥都有例外,你要说,也许可能大概这次不一样,我也没有意见。

NATVvsNYTV

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.