11/7/2011 Portfolio Update

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Because UCO daily low is above the entry price, so set breakeven stop loss and half out. The portfolio till today is all set, long equities and oil, hedged with bond long and dollar long and perhaps gold long, a perfect combination.

This research project went well so far, but the biggest problem still is when to exit and when to cut loss. We haven’t got the chance to test this yet and currently I’m still pretty much clueless about which is the best way to cut loss:

  • Cut as soon as the opposite setup is confirmed, which greatly reduces the losses but suffer great whipsaws that reduce the winning rate to below 60% from above 80%.
  • Or continue hold the current position until the stop loss hit which would guarantee a single loss is several times bigger than most of, if not all, gains, therefore even a 80%+ winning rate can still loss money.

Which way would be? If you, my dear readers, know the answer from your experiences or have a better solution, please let me know, thanks.


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  • SLs based on levels is the best solution provided you have a decent bankroll. Else using money management is the best. And I definitely like selling half after a certain profit level. But moving SL upto breakeven for the other half is questionable.

    • Thanks, then you think I should keep the stop loss there until decent gains?

  • Anonymous

    Long on the USD. Interesting.

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