11/10/2011 Market Outlook (No Title)


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SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Nothing new today:

  • Officially, the intermediate-term trend is up, the short-term trend is down. The key point to watch is the Nov 1st low, only when it’s broken, there’s a danger that the intermediate-term may slip into a downtrend. Pay attention to the word “danger” here, because as mentioned in the yesterday’s report, even indeed the Nov 1st low is broken, it’s not a confirmed downtrend yet, further evidences are needed.
  • Maintain the forecast made in 11/09 Market Outlook that there will be a lower close ahead. The rebound today was actually expected. The chart below is the evidence I showed yesterday why I expect a lower close ahead. Let’s zoom in a little, for your conveniences, I also marked only the cases when there’s a rebound the next day. Clearly we can see, that in the most cases, when NYADV was way too low, there’d be a huge rebound the next day and unfortunately our rebound today is among the weakest. So there’s nothing for bulls to celebrate today. Tomorrow and the next Monday are the key.

NYADV

The chart below shows today’s intraday pattern. It’s a 2 legged up and most importantly, the 2nd leg overlapped a lot with the 1st leg therefore it doesn’t look like an impulse wave up to the Galaxy far far away, well, at least yet. On the contrary, it looks more like a Bear Flag or Rising Wedge, which implies a continue down is more likely, so again, bulls have nothing to brag about today.

SPY15min

The last but not the least, let’s once again take a look at how Rydex Traders (retailers) are doing now, well, despite huge down yesterday, they’re still way too bullish.

RydexFundFlow

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天没有新内容:

  • Officially,中期是uptrend,短期是downtrend。看点是11月1号的lows,只有那里破了,中期才有跌入downtrend的危险。注意是危险,还不是确定downtrend。
  • 维持11/09 Market Outlook的判断,会有lower close ahead。今天的上涨是预料之中的。下面的图是我昨天lower close ahead的依据,NYADV is way too low。今天zoom in看一下,方便起见,只标出了NYADV very low,第二天又反弹的情况,可以看到,绝大多数情况,NYADV很low的第二天都有大反弹。相比而言,我们今天的反弹是比较弱的一次,因此牛牛没有啥好庆祝的。明天和下周一才是关键。

NYADV

下面的图显示了今天盘中反弹的情况,是2 legged up,并且互相之间重叠的很厉害(Overlap),因此,至少目前看,这不是什么大牛腿(impulsive up)的开始,相反,看着反而像是Bear Flag or Rising Wedge的样子,因此again,不能说今天的反弹很牛。

SPY15min

最后follow up一下Rydex Trader (散户)的情况,依然是很牛。顺便说,已经有好几个同学来问我了,不是Bear Fund Asset Flow也很高,表示散户很熊吗?这个,该打PG,仔细看看右下角的红圈圈里写着什么?

RydexFundFlow

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Anonymous

    thanks, Master Cobra

  • Anonymous

    thx, ding

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Cobra!

    “这个,该打PP.” Not me this time. It was my question last month. 🙂

  • happy chen

    thank you. 每天来看蛇老大的报告已经成了习惯

  • oh damn.. i keep forgetting to use your link to order from amazon. i do all the purchasing for the company i work for and i purchase a lot thru amazon. i’ll try to make it a habit from now on.

    • Thanks. Let me know if the next time you do big purchase at Amazon, thanks. 🙂

  • The SPX index has had only one multiple day drop (October 31st and November 1st) in the past twenty-seven trading days.  The technique of implementing bullish positions near the close of a bearish day has worked quite well over the past six weeks and the overall bullish chart pattern will not be broken unless the November first lows are taken out.  It would not surprise me if the recent SPX 1275 highs are tested by early next week, especially if bullish European news about lower Italian bond interest rates and/or if the recent changes in the Italian government are perceived to be positive to European and North American stock markets.   

  • HighRev

    * Equity fund inflows driven by ETF cash to $8.2 billion
    * Municipal bond fund inflows best since Sept. 2010

    By Daniel Bases
    NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) – U.S. equity mutual funds pulled in fresh cash in the week ended Nov. 9, driven by inflows into exchange-traded funds, data from Thomson Reuters’ Lipper showed on Thursday.

    Overall, equity mutual funds pulled in $8.2 billion in net new money while taxable bond funds had inflows of $4.7 billion.

    Excluding ETFs, which are considered, anecdotally, to represent the investment flows from large institutions, equity funds had net outflows of $519 million.

    “Any money going into the market right now, from the institutional perspective is heading toward equity ETFs,” said Matthew Lemieux, a research analyst at Lipper.

    “From the more long-term retail investor standpoint they are looking at taxable bonds, perhaps this week moving a little bit away from high yield and into the corporate investment grade sector,” he said.

    Taxable bond funds, ex-ETFs, pulled in a net $3.5 billion, the data showed.

    Corporate investment grade debt funds pulled in a net $1.8 billion, more than double the prior week’s inflows. It was the opposite situation for corporate high yield funds, whose inflows dropped to just under $1.1 billion from $1.9 billion a week earlier.

    At the same time, money market mutual funds had net inflows of $17 billion, the biggest amount of net new cash moving into the safe-haven space since the week ended Aug. 10.

    Municipal bond funds had net inflows of $761 million, their best week since early September 2010. 

    continue reading here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/investing-fundflows-lipper-idUSN1E7A923I20111110

  • uempel

    BPNYA might have topped, but it could also see a bit more upside – both scenarios possible.
    SPX action of the last 6 months conveys the same message: SPX might have topped at 1293, but a breakthrough out of the purpel ellipse and a move higher does not look impossible. For me it’s wait and see until the charts are more articulate.

    • Thanks. You know I always like your charts, especially when I’m clueless. 

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