11/14/2011 Market Outlook (No bear smell on SPX but DAX is not good looking)


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SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, BEARS NEED A BIG DROP DAY

Nothing to say today, the pullback wasn’t strong so no smell of bears yet. It’s still a Symmetrical Triangle on the SPX daily chart so the bias is up. Especially, since the Oct lows, bears had only one case of 2 consecutive down days, so whether we could see another red day tomorrow is a question. Even indeed red, if the pullback size is not big enough then the chart pattern is still Symmetrical Triangle, therefore still bullish biased. All in all, bears need show some strength here, otherwise it’s still the bull’s world. That said, I don’t see the market as very bullish either because a strong bull should be up every day leaving no chances for us to buy dips.

SPXDaily

I see a bearish reversal bar or Dark Cloud Cover formed on the DAX daily chart, so it might continue pullback tomorrow which is good news for bears because DAX usually leads SPX (at least it’s the main factor whether SPX gap up or gap down). The question still is: If SPX is (luckily) down again tomorrow, how large that drop will be?

DAXDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *? 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, BEARS NEED A BIG DROP DAY

今天没啥说的,下跌不够猛,因此我还没有闻到熊的味道。SPX daily图上还是Symmetrical Triangle,因此bias还是向上的。特别是自从10月的low以来,熊熊就只有一次连跌两天的纪录,所以明天是否能再次收红,是个疑问,既使明天收红了,如果幅度不大的话,图形还是Symmetrical Triangle,因此还是bullish biased。总之,熊熊得加把劲才行。当然,我也不认为市场有多牛,因为很牛的市场是不会这么磕磕碰碰的,而是天天猛涨,根本就不给大家buy dip的机会。

SPXDaily

DAX整了个bearish reversal day or Dark Cloud Cover,因此有继续回调的可能,这个对熊熊有利,因此经常DAX leads SPX。问题还是,明天如果SPX侥幸又跌的话,幅度是多少?这个是问题的关键。

DAXDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *? 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Anonymous

    Thanks Cobra based on your findings that there were only two consecutive down days since the oct low, and that trannies have already broken the triangle odds are good that we’ll have a green day tomorrow.  The question is, will we break out of the triangle tomorrow?

    • Anonymous

      i could be drawing my trend lines differently (wrong?), but i’m not getting transports breaking out yet.  they are definitely testing the upper band more closely, but i don’t see a clear confirmed breakout yet.

      • Anonymous

        Your correct, it actually hasn’t jumped that trend line yet, apologies.  Regardless, look how much close the trannies are to breaking out than $spx:

    • Anonymous

      correct me if i am wrong, but a breakout of triangle is usually decisive, this seems like a head fake of a breakout

      • Anonymous

        Perhaps.

  • Anonymous

    thx, ding

  • itcomesupinwaves turned my attention to the transport and it reminded me of a triangle count i had for SPX. 

    i posted it here and it was labeled alternate 3. http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2011/11/eod-update_07.html

    I like how wave d is complex as well.

  • HighRev

    Coming into the U.S. session.

  • thanks cobra laoda

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