11/15/2011 Market Outlook (At least up 2 days in a row?)


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SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

First of all, if you had posted lots of links to your own blog here and in the intraday forum, please refrain from doing so. I believe such a behavior is not allowed in the most blogs and discussion boards. I understand OCCASIONALLY there’s a need to post a link to one’s own blog, so I didn’t say anything, but everything has a limit as it’s not fair to other commenters here and at the intraday forum, whose sole purpose is to contribute in this community. Thanks for the cooperation.

 

Still nothing to say today, it’s still a Symmetrical Triangle, therefore the bias is on the upside.

As mentioned in the yesterday’s report, since the Oct lows, except 1 case, bears just couldn’t make a 2 consecutive down days, and indeed, we had a green day today with no follow-though of down day yesterday. On the contrary, from the chart below, except 2 cases since the Oct lows, most up days were at least 2 days in a row, so if the same rule goes on, tomorrow might be green again.

SPX

The chart below is for fun only, as I really have nothing to say. We all know DAX leads SPX, at least it decides how SPX opens in the morning, so based on the theory, in the yesterday’s report, according to the DAX daily Bearish Reversal Bar, I successfully forecasted a gap down this morning. Today, DAX formed a hollow red bar which is similar to the last time when the same Bearish Reversal Day was followed by a hollow red bar, so I guess DAX may repeat what happened the last time again, i.e. an up day tomorrow, and therefore, SPX would be up big tomorrow. And if indeed, let’s pay attention to the money flow at close, if still negative (as reported in today’s Trading Signals, we had 5 consecutive negative money flow days) or not much inflow, then we might see a big down day again the day after tomorrow (just like what happened the last time). Sounds superstitious? Well, let’s see. Smile 

DAX

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term ? 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天还是没有啥好说的,还是在Symmetrical Triangle里,因此bias还是向上。

昨天的报告里提到了,自10月的low以来,除了一次例外,熊熊就无法连跌2天,今天果然又是收绿。反过来,从下面的图可以看到,自10月的low以来,牛牛至少都是连涨2天,只有2次例外,所以明天收绿的几率大一点点。

SPX

下面的图for fun only,实在没有什么好说的了。大家知道DAX leads SPX,昨天的报告就是根据DAX的Bearish Reversal Day预测了今天SPX低开。今天DAX的棒棒又跟前一次Bearish Reversal Day第二天的棒棒相似,因此可能明天DAX也是重复上一次的走法吧,明天涨,这样,SPX明天可能会大涨。如果真的大涨的话,明天收盘我们注意money flow,如果还是负的(注意今天的Trading Signals里报告的,我们已经连续5天是负的money flow了),或者inflow不多的话,那么可能后天会大跌。这样的分析看着很玄是吧?We’ll see,呵呵。

DAX

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term ? 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Anonymous

    Hi Cobra-  thanks for you insights, great as always.

    Question about the money flow to watch at tommorow’s close-  will we be able to determine that before the close of the day (so I could close a long position)  .. or can you only determine that after the close  (and thus risk a gap down by being in a long overnight)

    just wondering if this is information I could gather before the close by using the intraday forum.. 🙂

    • There’s no way intraday. You can check the link here intraday: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfsctrscan-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3000. Just I found the results change a lot after market closes. I usually wait until at least 4:30pm ET before taking the readings seriously.

  • 99er

    Cobra

    I post links to my blog because that is the place where I post my charts. As you know, there are no advertisements of any sort so there is no revenue associated with it. Having a blog, as you also know, allows you to see where your audience is, what they prefer and so forth. It’s a shame that uempel and others do not understand this and think instead that we are making money off this blogging. Thanks.

    • Sam IAM

      I don’t participate much, but I am a major lurker and I enjoy your chart work. I also don’t believe you link to them for self promotion.

    • I think Uempel didn’t mean you and I’m OK with your style. Your blog absolutely has nothing but chart and you held lots of weekend sessions in OUR forum (you see OUR here), so sorry for misunderstandings here.

    • uempel

      99, of course I did not mean you. I meant those who are trying to make a business out of the huge traffic generated by Cobra’s ingenuity and industriousness. E.g. as if the real purpose of your activity here would not  be to show intreresting charts, but to woo readers to your website in order to sell honey to the bears… Hey 99, that’s a great business idea! 

    • Michel G

      99er, i think your contribution is valuable both here and in the forum. (valuable and funny, something needed too) But there are others how doesn’t add such value and seems to me (and uempel, and others) like they only purpose is to drive trafic to their site. Thanks for your insight and good sense of humor. =^_^=

  • Hi Cobra,

    I have been ‘out of pocket’ a lot, but enjoy your new format a lot. These are truly difficult times in the stock market and I appreciate your efforts as always! Also, I do apologize for sometimes posting links to my blog. I just share my comments and opinions, just a novice so nothing ever to sell, anyway, who would buy my VooDoo brain? Anyway, I am sorry if anything I posted was in bad taste or offended you in any way. I will not do that again!

    Have a great week!

    MK

    • MK, I didn’t mean you. Your way of sharing is OK. I’m sorry if I caused some misunderstandings here.

      • No problems ever, I want to make the visit to your site as pleasant to others as it is to me, anyway, all they have to do is click on my name and it takes them to my blog. I should have done that link before, I am a Disqus novice also. lol

        I am leaning long tonight, I got out early on Nov 09 but still lost more than I planned to lose. Being long now for me is like walking the plank every day, big swing today…market should have closed 30 min early. hmmm

        Have a great evening and thank you so much for this forum! You are the best!

        MK

  • uempel

    Trying to figure out what BPSPX is telling us. Not sure if there will be any move out of the SPX range 1240/1260 this week – unless a bank fails. Ten year BPSPX and close up:

  • uempel

    The big wait…

  • Anonymous

    bbs down?

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