SHORT-TERM MODEL HAS NO IDEA ABOUT THE TREND, HODING BOTH LONG (TRAPPED) AND SHORT (TRAPPED) OVERNIGHT
The bottom line, I have no clue about the market direction, guess we’ll have to wait until the Symmetrical Triangle to break on either side. The only thing I see a little bit suspicious is yet we had another day of negative money flow and this is 5 days in a row.
November 15, 2011 at 5:15 pm
I don’t think it is a triangle. it is a monkey fish wave caused by relative weakness and an A B C that began after the first drop off the high (10/27). I also think wave 2 was over on 10/27 and today’s high (or maybe a tad more) was the end of wave [ii] of 1 of 3 down. target 1000-1050 SPX cash for 1 of 3. I also think that the crash that is coming will be a C wave and not P3.
November 15, 2011 at 5:34 pm
?when you talk about crash . what are you taking about in terms of the SPX and why a ” crash”” ? thks
November 15, 2011 at 5:55 pm
two reasons. 1. I expect a third wave down. 2. Europe is about to implode. Our major banks are heavily exposed to Europe. then entire world is now connected. we are all in a recession again. US bonds up to park money, dollar up since EURO is going to go with Europe. down to 1000-1050 is not really the real crash. the crash would come after the relief rally after that.
November 15, 2011 at 6:07 pm
I agree but before all this would you not expect the santa rally ? up until mid jan ?
November 15, 2011 at 6:14 pm
I wouldn’t count on it. I would give this thing until November 30th at most. unless this is not a relief rally and it certainly looks like one so far
November 15, 2011 at 7:22 pm
kenny, miss your blog and perspective!
November 15, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Thanks man!
November 15, 2011 at 6:25 pm
anyway, a Santa rally could come as a small relief rally in a larger down trend
November 15, 2011 at 8:48 pm
Thanks for that count. Say, if you have some free time over the weekend, why not post a comment or two on the Weekend Watering thread. Love to see what you have to say dude. Really miss your stuff! And what is gcisright up to these days?
November 15, 2011 at 9:19 pm
been checking in when I believe we are near an important inflection point. I was here talking about the 200 day and neck line when we were bouncing around near the lows. Was a bit early on that one. I see a lot of stuff today that could mean it’s time to go down again. and the Minis are getting hammered. I don’t think they are getting back up this time to tell the truth, and we’ll be grinding lower for weeks now. Could be relatively orderly though.
November 15, 2011 at 10:22 pm
Grinding lower for weeks? Let’s Occupy The Lows. Or are you already occupying Chicago? Rahm, by the way, should be charged with insider trading on Freddie Mac. Thanks, again.
November 15, 2011 at 11:56 pm
Yeah, if you have time, join us in our forum. 🙂
November 16, 2011 at 12:10 am
where is this located? is it just a weekend post like this one?
November 16, 2011 at 12:19 am
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewforum.php?f=2, you see that “weekend watering” (attached).
You have to register and pass the test first. Haha, I’m going to test you and give you a score. 🙂
November 16, 2011 at 12:42 am
You almost had me on those tough tickers. LOL
November 16, 2011 at 12:20 am
kenny
The Weekend Watering thread is posted under “Intraday Update”–Cobra’s bulletin board–linked to from the tab at the top of this page. Try it…you’ll like it.
November 15, 2011 at 5:17 pm
RUT Interesting Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/rut-interesting-time-ratio.html
November 15, 2011 at 5:18 pm
SP500 Important Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/sp500-important-time-ratio.html
November 15, 2011 at 5:35 pm
cobra negative cash flow can be read as short covering?
November 15, 2011 at 11:45 pm
No, I don’t think so.
November 15, 2011 at 5:44 pm
I wonder how much of that negative money flow came in the last 5 minutes. The DOW was also the worst performer amongst the major indices. Nevertheless, that is a worrisome trend of underlying weakness.
November 15, 2011 at 5:55 pm
DJI NAS SP500 Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/dji-nas-sp500-fibo.html
November 15, 2011 at 6:16 pm
False breakdown into opex then multi week rally.
November 15, 2011 at 6:31 pm
Cobra – any studies on the money flow indicator ? This type of reading (-5 days) have any historical meaning ? thank you
November 15, 2011 at 11:44 pm
Well, I need find time to investigate this. Right now I don’t have any serious studies but past experiences.
November 15, 2011 at 6:38 pm
thx,ding
November 15, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Cobra, why don’t you ask people like gerald langelier to post their information with an image instead of a link? For your readers a link is a detour, and these guys are collecting clicks which you generate. You could also ask for $$ per click…
November 15, 2011 at 7:09 pm
I agree with Uempel.
November 15, 2011 at 7:22 pm
strongly agree
November 15, 2011 at 7:36 pm
I collect no benefit from traffic to this link:
http://i39.tinypic.com/5v98qg.png
November 15, 2011 at 9:40 pm
OK, I’ve notified everyone. Let’s what’s happening the next. Thanks.
November 15, 2011 at 10:29 pm
Where is the “dislike” button?
November 15, 2011 at 11:43 pm
“Dislike” is not allowed here. 🙂
November 15, 2011 at 10:26 pm
uempel
Please be aware that linking to a blog does not generate “$$” unless viewers click on your advertisements. As you know, my blog does not have a single advertisement; it’s comprised only of charts. Sorry about any “detour” but if that’s too much of a hassle, then just skip the fucking thing.
November 15, 2011 at 11:43 pm
Because your blog has nothing but chart, so I think you’re OK to show links and I really appreciate you held lots of weekend sessions in our forum. Other blogs are not like yours, they can run independently so even they don’t have any ad, but still they get lots of traffics from advertising here.
I think Uempel didn’t mean you. So don’t blame him. I’m not happy with more and more people are promoting their sites here myself. In my Chinese forum such promotion was not allowed long time ago because people had a big fight over this kind of behavior and eventually I had to forbid any external personal links. Hope you could understand.
November 16, 2011 at 12:28 am
While astrology, sun bursts and moon beams aren’t my thing, some folks may be interested in their forecasting ability. Why not have them on the TA menu if others might be interested?
November 15, 2011 at 7:25 pm
Cobra, thank you for the continually honest and thorough analysis, it is appreciated.
November 15, 2011 at 11:55 pm
Thanks. Glad people like me always saying “I have no idea”. 🙂 You know I’m kidding, right. 🙂
November 15, 2011 at 8:02 pm
It is all about the 200 day MA at 1272.. I favor a test of the 50 day MA before another rally. However, if the market makes a clear break out above the 200 day then the rally is here.
http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/2011/11/triangle.html
November 16, 2011 at 3:06 am
since everyone is talking so much about triangle pattern, may be it is better off to stay away from being married to it.
One way to do that is to trade in accordance with 50 and 200 dma. So, i would short at this point w stop loss at 200dma and target at 50dma.
COBRA: what is your take about this triangle pattern that many anticipate to occur? Recently many patterns have failed me so many times that made me scared to have high hope in them. let me name a few: H&S, inverted HS, bear pennant, bull pennant, diamond, Garley butterfly, and now (symmetrical, descending, ascending) triangles. I bet some of us here went broke because of sticking to patterns that never fully materialized.
Beside, if this game was rigged, wouldn’t big boyz recognize these patterns as well. jmho
November 16, 2011 at 3:22 am
Actually, if you read my post on the link I don’t really trade triangles. They are as reliable as flipping a coin, however one thing they do is impulse out at the end of the pattern so that is what I am waiting for. And I agree with the shorting strategy using the 200 day.. But I personally don’t like shorting much, I prefer to wait and catch it from the downside. Hopefully at the 50 day ma.
November 16, 2011 at 9:11 am
Triangle breakout could be on either direction, so if someone really understands Triangle, she/he is not in yet, cannot be rigged.
[…] And if indeed, let’s pay attention to the money flow at close, if still negative (as reported in today’s Trading Signals, we had 5 consecutive negative money flow days) or not much inflow, then we might see a big down […]
November 15, 2011 at 11:32 pm
Where does this Money Flow data come from- anyone have a link or tips on where/when to look at money flow data?
November 15, 2011 at 11:34 pm
nm- found it:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfsctrscan-moneyflow.html
Havent used this page myself- does it update intraday, or is this updated after market closes?
November 15, 2011 at 11:36 pm
it updates intraday but not reliable. I only reads after 4:30pm ET. You’d find it changes a lot after market closed.
November 15, 2011 at 11:50 pm
Ah I see
You mentioned that if it had a big negative reading or low flow, you felt there could be another big drop day after tommorow. If you were holding a long into the close, would you then sell your position in After Hours to avoid getting hit with a big gap down?
I have problems in situations like this, where I learn something after the close, or late at night and then it seems too late to do anything about it, other than eat it in the morning..
November 15, 2011 at 11:54 pm
I’d use AH to adjust my position if I see some clear evidences.
But this money flow thing, I wouldn’t trade based on it. It’s just one sign, I need see more reliable signs.
November 16, 2011 at 3:29 am
Does anyone here keep stats of time duration that price action oscillating above and below 50dma? spx had been under 50dma from end of july to early mid oct. since then it s been above 50dma. is it due for a tag of 50dma already?