11/17/2011 Portfolio Update

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Trading Signals:

Really bad day for the portfolio because gold dropped a lot. I’ve been thinking of closing DGP pyramid position almost everyday since it had profit, but, well, rule is rule, there’s nothing I can do here.

The system will try to short gold tomorrow, set DZZ buy stop at $4.70, stop loss around $4.18.

I changed my mind, didn’t close half of TMF, because according to the same rule, I should close half of TZA too, but since we have TNA, so close half of TZA would make the position bullish biased which at the current stage seems pretty risky. Yeah yeah yeah, I know the trade I’m afraid the most usually is the best trade, so maybe I should close the half of TMF and TNA today. And indeed it’s true I shouldn’t close half of UUP, I was simply too afraid and the system still leaves some wiggle room for me. Anyway, I’m still writing the program to back test the system, so be prepared for more “wiggles” ahead.

I’m a half empty type of person, so I tend to close my winning position way too earlier. I think this is very bad, because a loss is guaranteed to be a full loss when the stop loss hit, but if I close my winning position way too earlier, that means the winner is only half winner, so it takes lots of winners to beat one single loser which is really bad in the long run. Take the UCO trade for example, I should according to my rule, (well, new rule, so no complain here), have closed half of the position today instead of on Nov 2, the profit would at least doubled then…


  • Anonymous

    Ding?! Those snake repellant advertisements are certainly eye-catching.  Okay.  Did my first swing trade today shorting gold.  But been watching the gold/silver bear funds for sometime.  There’s a relatively new one out called DGLD / DSLV  – low volumes- tricky? to get in. Anyhows here’s how they compared today:  DZZ Up 5.67%, DGLD Up 9.67% (share costs more; is @ $45.47)  DUST (gold miner bear) Up 7.98% .  Compare silver bear funds:  ZSL Up 13.46% and DSLV up 19.45%  And thank you for all you and other participants are teaching me. 

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  • Cobra, I’ve been doing a lot of backtesting lately. I too am trying to gain the confidence in uncovering the data, to stick with a winner long enough to make the system profitable. As you say, you MUST have big wins to counter the numerous little losses. If you cut your wins too early, you’ll end up losing in the end. I don’t know what backtest software you’re using.. looks like something in TC2000. I use TC2000 for trading and Seer for backtesting. I’ve been up to 4am many nights working out and programing back tests. Tedious work that usually creates more questions than answers, but it’s necessary to build the confidence.

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