11/22/2011 Market Outlook (Descending Triangle)


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SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Nothing to say today. Seasonality is very bullish tomorrow, INDU up 8 of 9 since 2002, but chart pattern still argues on the downside, especially DAX. If you like me, who believes DAX leads, then today’s DAX daily, that almost closed at the low of the day, doesn’t look like a bottom. So the conclusion is a little bearish biased, just I have no guts to yell a red day tomorrow. It’s not because I’m superstitious about the seasonality, it’s because of the very thin holiday volume, no big guys would sell into this volume as we retailers simply could not hold it, so it’d be way too costly, no matter you want to be bear or bull.
SPY60min
DAXDaily

In yesterday’s report, I mentioned 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 Days could mean more down ahead, with or without a rebound first. The market chose no rebound today, so the chart below shows all the past cases that had no rebound the next day for your references. Looks like at least a lower low is very likely tomorrow.

2MDDin5Days

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天没有啥好说的。明天seasonality很bullish,INDU up 8 of 9 since 2002,不过从chart pattern看,向下的机率比较大,特别是DAX,如果你也像我一样,相信DAX leads的话,DAX今天这根close low of day的红棒棒可不像是底的样子。所以结论是略微bearish biased,不过,我不敢断定明天会跌,不是迷信seasonality,而是假日volume,一般大户不会选择在这个时候sell,没有人接盘,因此成本太高了。 
SPY60min
DAXDaily

昨天的报告里提到了2 Major Distribution Day within 5 Days,意味着还有的跌,可能有也可能没有反弹。今天market选择了没有反弹,下面的图是过去所有2 Major Distribution Day with 5 Days以后没有反弹的例子,供参考吧,看起来明天还有个lower low的样子哈。

2MDDin5Days

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • 99er
  • Anonymous

    Tomorrow was supposed to be one of the few days of the year that is reliably bullish. And downside is very limited. It will be interesting if that overnight weakness continues, is reversed or quickly bought up tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    Also, $VIX and $SPX down same day, odds green next day. 
    waho

    • No odds nowadays.

  • Anonymous

    No cigar for bulls!

  • Anonymous

    thx, ding

  • Anonymous

    Watch for bounce back to 1205 then another drop.  We can drop to 1160 before we bounce but either way i think 1205 will be tested and tank from there!  The 20% haircut still on track!  Hey were is that guy that thought we were going to 1400 by end of the year???  Haven’t heard a peep from that guy!

    believe it dirty twats!

  • uempel

    Support level 1170 is key in many charts, this Fuzzy chart shows next strong support down at 1150…

  • uempel

    A close look at monthly SPX shows importance of 1170 area:

  • HighRev

    USD and EUR wedges.

  • uempel

    Whoever can spare 5 min should go the the website of the NYT and search for

    The Umbrella Man
    Errol Morris Explores the Kennedy Assassination

    It’s one of the most intelligent videos I’ve seen, especially interesting for chartists, shows that we should distinguish facts from conincidence… 

  • denali92

    The lowest probability post opex / holiday scenario is in play….

    The markets are still hourly OS, so there really should be a bounce
    today or at the latest Friday….  Though today should be the low based
    on opex history.

    From an opex / holiday standpoint, there are two possible analogs –

    Nov 2007
    – Then we had a sharp high at the end of October and then had a
    volatile downward move that bottomed twice once on the Wednesday after
    opex and then we had a final bottom on the Monday after Thanksgiving.   I
    like this one a fair amount as there are three key reference points.

    May 2011
    – Again a significant high at the end of the month / beginning of the
    month.  Opex was a bit more skewed to the upside, but we did then fall
    in to the Wed after opex.
    Interestingly, like today, we had a sharp overnight move, made the low
    in the overnight session (so far) and then had a strong rally until the
    day after Memorial Day – this would equate in to a strong rally in to next Monday / Tuesday.   Though it would imply a post Thanksgiving top, which is really quite rare, but anything is possible….

    One
    other thing to consider, which is not opex / holiday analog based and
    that is that we really have not had a correction to re-test the October
    lows like we did in Aug 2010…. there is no holiday or opex period to
    provide  a reference point, but from a market structure point in terms
    of timing and price, there is certainly a possibility of forming a
    significant low around the 9th to 13th of December.

    That
    is about it from here – right now this post opex / pre holiday period
    is starting to providing new analogs for me, as it really has
    previously been very rare to have bottoms on the Wednesday after opex
    and it would be more than extreme if we do not bottom by Friday or
    Monday at the latest…. but with the markets, anything is certainly
    possible.

    Thanks!

    -D

  • Anonymous

    happy thanksgiving 🙂

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