11/28/2011 Market Outlook (Up Huge on Negative TICK Close and Money Flow)


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SHORT-TERM: NOT SO BRIGHT

The bigger picture, maintain what I said in 11/25 Market Outlook, short-term, could see a sharp rebound (which is indeed), but at least the 11/25 lows will be revisited eventually. When will the lows be revisited? My guess is within days. If tomorrow open high and go lower or just a small range day, then it mostly confirms my guess that the revisit of the lows will be sooner than later. However, if tomorrow, gap high and go higher, up huge again, then I wouldn’t mention this so called “revisit the lows” anymore, instead, it’d be the 7 Days Rule – up at least 6 of 7 days and absolutely no bearish signals would work during such a period. So again, let’s see whether a huge up tomorrow first.

Two cents:

  1. Should be more up ahead, at least there’ll be a higher high tomorrow.
  2. Such a higher high could be a sell opportunity.

The chart below explains why there’d be a higher high tomorrow. Because today is a Major Accumulation Day, which used to guarantee a higher high the next day. Such a rule, was wrong 3 times in a row recently, given the past odds, which was well above 70%, I don’t believe it’d go wrong again the 4th time.

HHGuaranteed

Another reason I believe more up ahead is the DAX daily bar looks very strong, seldom was such a “rise form open to close” bar exactly the market top, so at least DAX, will have a higher high tomorrow. And generally DAX leads, at least it determines whether SPY gap up or gap down tomorrow.

DAX

Then why is the higher high tomorrow, if indeed, a sell opportunity? I saw 2 suspicious things today. Firstly, up almost 3% but the money flow is very negative, especially the block sell, which implies that big guys were selling into the strength; Secondly, up almost 3% but TICK closed below 0, from the statistics below, looks like tomorrow, the day after tomorrow and the day after the day after tomorrow and 2 weeks later are not so pleasant. Combining those 2 factors with all the excuses I mentioned in the 11/25 Market Outlook, therefore my guess is a higher high tomorrow might be a sell opportunity.

MoneyFlow
SPXUpTICKDown

The chart below is another reason tomorrow and the day after tomorrow might not be very pleasant: The last 2 trading days of the month are mostly bearish. By the way, according to the chart below, a green day today was actually expected.

Last2DaysOfMonth

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 5 of 6 *NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: NOT SO BRIGHT

先说明一下,因为很多同学一般只看中文部份,所以可能会错过$10 monthly membership的机会,点击链接看一下吧,$10基本上是破产大甩卖价了。四年了,我也算尽了我最大的努力,尽量付出而不牟利,以我每天报告的质量,换别人早就$40每个月都不止了,所以这个$10已经是为了不牟利而作出的最大的折中了,各位抓住机会吧。当然,肯定有人会说,你就不能不牟利吗?老大,老实说,我如果还是单身的话,我就铁了心牺牲了,问题是我有家有小的人了,整天坐在电脑边,除了吃饭就是睡觉。这个,总得对家人有个交待吧?我整天在那干啥,有没有经济效益,是否是不务正业,等等。你也不能不给我留条活路,是吧?你希望我这只鸡每天都下蛋,但你总不能一点都不喂食,是吧?所以,各位,支持我一下吧,$10一个月真的是少得可怜了,很多同学一次的交易费都不止这数啊。谢谢!另,请仔细阅读链接里的内容,不要点错按钮了。

 

大方向,维持11/25 Market Outlook的预测,短期有大反弹(Indeed),但是至少至少11/25的lows还会再去的。什么时候去,目前我猜几天内。明天如果是高开低走或者是不死不活的小棒棒的话,基本可以确认我的猜测,几天内大盘又会掉下来;但是如果明天大盘,高开高走,大涨特涨的话,短期内我就不会再提revisit low了,而是7 Days Rule,7天里至少涨6天,其间啥bearish的信号都么有用。所以看明天是否大涨吧。

两点说明:

  1. 还没有涨完,明天至少会有个higher high。
  2. 明天这个higher high多半是sell的机会。

下面的图解释了为什么明天会有higher high。因为今天是Major Accumulation Day,一般意味着第二天会有higher high,这个规律已经连着错了3次了,但是由于几率是一定的,所以,我不认为第4次还会错了,因此我相信明天会有higher high。

HHGuaranteed

另一个我相信还没有涨完的理由是DAX看着很强,这样一根从开盘涨到收盘的大棒,很少是顶,因此明天还会往上拱一下。一般DAX leads,至少决定明天早盘是高开还是低开。

DAX

那么为什么又说明天的higher high,如果有的话,是sell的机会呢?今天有两个可疑的地方,一是涨了将近3%,但是money flow却负得很厉害,且主要来自block sell,就是说是大户在sell;另一个,今天涨了将近3%,但是TICK却收在0以下,从下面的统计看,明天,后天,大后天,还有两周后好像都不怎么牛牛友好,考虑到11/25 Market Outlook提到的至少至少11/25的lows还会去的诸多理由,因次我猜明天如果有higher high的话,可能是sell的机会。

MoneyFlow
SPXUpTICKDown

下面的图是另一个明天后天可能不太好的理由:每个月的最后两天都比较bearish。顺便说,根据下面的图,今天就应该是收绿的,所以完全是预料中的事情。

Last2DaysOfMonth

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 3 of 6 *NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Anonymous

    Thanks.  Tomorrow may be a good day to just watch.  

  • Anonymous

    Thanks! Will subscribe by 30th.

  • Hi Cobra
    Will be happy to become a subscriber. I have tried, however, to login and to use your PayPal button, but neither seem to work.
    Thanks,

    • You might have hit a wrong PayPal button? So as the result, you donated money but didn’t get you signed in? I’ve removed that donation button, leaves only the checkout button. Would you like to try again? You can send me email at cobra@cobrasmarketview.com. I’d be glad to help you. And in case you did hit the wrong paypal button, I could refund your donation money.

  • By the way, Trin was the lowest today in more than two years. ISEE also made quite a jump today; seems retail has quickly become bullish again. 

  • Anonymous

    Cobra, I think a lot of people thought they did not want to spend $10 on November since only several days left. They wait for the beginning of the new month.
    They may be wrong, since you may charge at different date for each individual depending on different registration date.

    • Anonymous

      Your month starts from when you join.

    • Yes, thanks, I’ll wait for awhile. Hopefully $10 would be enough to get most of regular visitors on board. This is what I bet on, very risky, I know.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Cobra – I gladly subscribed yesterday – This is a rare exception where I actually feel good paying a monthly fee.  Your insights are awesome and I’ve learned a lot by reading your blog every day.  I’m personally glad you are moving towards a fee based site because your definitely worth it and this way I feel like I’m giving a little bit back. I’ll send additional funds when I make a little more headway in the market.  You’re the first place I check out every day and I value the ideas of all the great thinkers that contribute to the intraday forum – Wish I had more knowledge to share with others – Thanks everyone for sharing your wisdom every day.

    • Thanks, really appreciate! 

  • uempel

    Bullish percentages were not very impressive Monday: BPNYA +0.10%, BPCOMPQ -0.47%, BPOEX and BPINDU flat, BPINDX -2.08%, BPSPX +0.40%…

  • Anonymous

    thx, ding

  • Anonymous

    For ten bucks deal me in!

  • uempel

    SPX has to lay its cards on he table at 1204: I’ll ditch my bearish bias if it can break DMA 55 resistance and closes higher this week. For control purposes I’m also checking NYAD cumulative and its DMA 55. The 55 signal works better when SPX and NYAD concur, both should be above or below.

  • Hi Cobra

    Happy new member here.  Thanks for all of your hard work.

  • Anonymous

    I subscribed over a week ago.  My other financial decisions should only be so good.

  • denali92

    First – Thanksgiving has now produced a low 5 out of the last 5 years (Friday lows in 2009 and 2011) and Monday (2007, 2008 and 2009).

    Most of those lows proved to be THE low in to at least the Fed meeting or opex in December – ie.  the time to sell the longs accumulated around the Thanksgiving holiday was not until some time in December!

    Having said that, I do think there are a number of similarities to both May and August and both of those had sharp rallies that had the bears GNASHING their teeth…. and both of those ended at month end….

    Lastly, prior to employment, we have been making changes in trend on the Tues before (Nov, Oct, June and April) and the Wednesday before (Sep, and March), so I definitely agree that there is a strong basis for the rally to end today or tomorrow and then we just will have to see what Friday brings…

    THANKS!

    -D

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