11/29/2011 Market Outlook (Compare Bars and Money Flow)

SHORT-TERM: NOT SO BRIGHT

The bottom line, the selling wasn’t over yet, although I’m not sure if the current rebound was over or not.

• You bet I’d say the down momentum was way too strong, so rarely the very first rebound could be successful, because you Earth people always like to try twice and only failed both time, would then try the opposite direction, so chances are there’s at least one more try to test the 11/25 lows before a solid bottom is possible.
• You bet I’d say, the rebound so far looks like a Bear Flag, therefore eventually would continue on the downside.

To understand the above 2 arguments, you need some experiences. Simply because it’s Cobra said and occasionally this guy could be right and the fact you’re visiting this guy’s territory, so you dare not speak against it publicly, but you still murmur, come on, give me a break, it’s empiricism! Well, let’s look at something more “visual”, see chart below:

• SO FAR the  bars on this round of rebound are different than the previous several times when SPY rebounded from its low where most bars were “rise from open to close” kind of bull bars. Doji is not something can be called a strong bull bar, agree? Utilizing the overnight very thin trading volume, via highly leveraged futures to lift the market skyrocket high then simply goes nowhere in the daylight, well, just tell me, what this kind of behaviors mean?
• And there’re more, take a look at the money flow, how positive they were when the previous several times SPY rebounded from its lows. Then take a look at the very negative  money flow now. Huge differences, aren’t it? And this should enough explained why the market gapped up high then spent the day going nowhere.

At least you have to admit, that SO FAR this rebound is a little different, don’t you? So if I say (forget I’m a Cobra that I can bite people) let’s take a little caution here, isn’t too much to ask, is it?

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: NOT SO BRIGHT

The bottom line，还没有跌完，但我不确定反弹是否结束了。

• 我说这么大的下跌动能，不可能第一次反弹就成功，因为你们地球人什么事情总是喜欢试两次，两次失败后才可能试相反的方向，所以至少还有一次探底的动作，失败后才可能到底。
• 我说这两天的反弹看起来像是Bear Flag，因此最终还会continue down。

以上两个理由，需要点经验，是Cobra说的，尽管Cobra偶然才能蒙对一次，但是估计大部份人不敢说不信，心里可能嘀咕，又忽悠咱是吧？那好吧，我们今天搞点直观的。

• 下面的图，这次反弹形成的两根棒棒，是不是跟前几次刚从底部弹起的光头光脚的大棒棒不同啊？Doji不是个什么strong bull bar，这你同意吧？晚上趁人少没啥阻力的时候用Futures把大盘抬上来，白天就横在那里，你说是在干啥？
• 那，还有，再看看以前几次从底部的反弹，money flow是啥样子的，我们这次呢？负的很厉害，更前几次没法比，是吧？这就解释了为啥子高开后，就横在那里了。

至少你不得不承认，这次的反弹和前几次有点点不一样，是吧？所以我说提高警惕，防止阶级敌人复辟，多少有点道理，对吧？

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.