12/07/2011 Market Outlook (Negative Money Flow)


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SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

First of all, from the messages left while registering at our Intraday Forum, I see still many people don’t know that the $10 monthly membership is for reading my daily report here, not for the Intraday Forum which will remain free, therefore to register at Intraday Forum won’t grant you a membership at the main site. You have to click here to register at our main site (www.cobrasmarketview.com) in order to see my daily report in the future. Thanks.

 

My guess (well, very tough guess) is there’s still some room on the upside because from the chart below, I see a consolidation pattern which usually means to continue higher. In addition, the Non-Stop Model issued a buy signal today and never had it issued a buy signal at exactly the market top, so chances are more up ahead. That said, as illustrated in the chart below, I couldn’t explain why for 3 consecutive up days the money flows were so negative, plus all the top signals I mentioned those days, so personally I feel very reluctant to believe this (more up) conclusion. The best scenario to make all my recent forecasts look smart is to up a little from here then reverses down. Anyway, trading wise, this is a typical news driven market, so anything could happen, therefore the best strategy is to stay sideline, which can be seen from the demo account reported in today’s Trading Signals, as according to the rule, I should close the long and (have to) hold the trapped short overnight, but I eventually decided to hold both long and short which essentially equals to sideline, or more precisely I should say, subconsciously I don’t feel safe to hold short overnight (therefore the bias is up).

SPYDaily

The chart below shows our Non-Stop Model. Those who follow the model shall cover short then take long tomorrow. As for the statistics about “never had a buy signal issued exactly at the market top”, please click Non-Stop to see more details. Basically, the buy signal of the model means 73% chances, SPY would rise at least 10 more calendar days (I don’t mean up everyday of course) before the top could possibly be in.

 NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 *BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

先说题外话,从今天的Intraday Forum注册的留言看,还是很多同学搞不清以后要收费的不是Intraday Forum而是这个每天的报告,因此在Intraday Forum注册是没有用的,必须点击这里,在www.cobrasmarketview.com注册才算。

 

我(非常艰难的)猜可能还有的涨,因为从下图看,这是个盘整的局,意味着continuation,因此最终向上的可能性比较大,此外,今天Non-Stop Model也出买信号了,这个Non-Stop Model的买信号还从来没有出在exactly top的情况,所以目前看,还要涨的可能性比较大。当然,我无法解释为什么连涨3天,但money flow却负的很厉害的现象,加上最近几天提到的看顶信号,因此我其实对这个还有涨的结论将信将疑,最能自圆其说的解释是小涨后反转向下。Anyway,操作上,我认为在目前这种谣言满天飞的局面下,sideline是比较好的策略,这个从今天的Trading Signals的demo account就能看出来了,按照rule,我应该出掉long,被迫hold trapped short过夜,但是我选择了hold both,其实就是等于sideline了,或者说,潜意识里对单独hold short没有安全感。

SPYDaily

下面看一下Non-Stop Model的图,follow这个model的,明天应该close short then open long。关于这个model从来没有买信号出在exactly market top的统计,请点击Non-Stop。基本上,这个model的买信号意味着有73%的机会SPY至少还会涨10个calendar day(不是说连涨10天哈)。

 NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 *BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Anonymous

    thx

  • d w

    Are your intermediate predictions still in play?  Thanks for everything Cobra!

    • Anonymous

      same question

    • You mean target SPX 1010ish?  Let’s wait until 12/09 EU meeting. I don’t even have a clear view on the short-term so the intermediate-term will have to wait.

  • Anonymous

    Cobra,

    Got 1 question and 1 observation. I cannot spot a buy signal given by NYSI today. Granted, all the other 3 gave buy signals a while ago. My observation is that TNX has the same kind of small divergence like VIX.

    Thx

    • Check my 0.2.1 chart, TNX actually argues for a bottom now because ROC30 < -9 again.

  • uempel

    I piled up Gann, ellipses and H&S in a 60 min chart: result shows
    A) Importance of 1264
    B) Resistances are up at 1272, 1285ish and 1293. But note that the quick rush to these targets might be a bull trap, because several trendlines (only one shown here) suggest 1264 is the top.
    C) Let’s not forget the inverse H&S, which is targeting 1485…
    D) Looks as though a wild ride is in the cards…

  • Anonymous

    Cobra, 

    Why will you start charging for your “reports”? Don’t get me wrong, your reports are good but I thought you get (enough) money from trading the markets?GL!

    • uempel

      You need welfare?

      • Anonymous

        Yes, but I thought that “welfare comes from trading”, no?

    • Michel G

      I’m afraid you don’t understand the enormous amount of job being done by Cobra to do this… On the other side, if this information is valuable to you, you can do a lot of money so why don’t show at least some apreciation to Cobra?? If the info is not usefull to you… well, you don’t need to read it, so it doesn’t matter if it’s free or pay-per-view.

      • Anonymous

        I understand the amount of work done, thrust me.. When I daytraded, I spent 4-5h every day analyzing data. Now I don’t daytrade anymore (swing trading).

        I do read this site occasionally but more or less for fun only since I believe that one has to do all the work by him self to succeed in this “game”. There is no such thing as easy money.

    • I do not want to start a string of negative comments… HOWEVER, this question kind of pissed me off!  The value of this blog is enormous.  The time and expense that goes in to it is incredible.  Cobra is very generous with his information, and I appreciate it very much.  10 bucks?  The best 10 bucks I have ever spent.  Thanks Cobra!!

      • Anonymous

        Chill, it was just me thinking out loud.

        $10 is nothing, I admit. Cobra is good, he is mostly spot-on with his thoughts and because of that I can not simply understand why he would need another $10 from his users reading his blog when he makes (?) >$5k week (or day?).

        But point taken, it was not my intention to piss people off so I crawl back under the stone I came from. Sorry!

        • Thanks. Are you married? If you have family you’d know what’s happening now. I’m under enormous pressure to make something in return of all my family sacrificed. Would your wife be OK with you when you spend 24/7/356 with your computer without any income and you told her that such a thing would last the rest of all your and her life?

          Frankly whether you believe or not, if I were still single, I’m willing to make all the sacrifices (that actually means you require me to sit before my computer 24/7/356 for the rest of my life for nothing), but sadly, the reality calls. I have to buy times from my family.

          Believe me, $10 a month is already the best compromise I could make for you. You like hen to lay an egg for you everyday, but you still have to feed something to your hen, right? You cannot expect your hen to lay egg out of nothing correct?

          So hope you could understand. Thanks.

          • Anonymous

            (Hopefully this is not a double post)

            That is why I gave up daytrading; it was her or the trading and the choice was not hard to make. She felt like living alone and I have to admit, trading took all my time.

            Single or not, everybody hast to eat. I’m sorry, I have not read your site good enough because I thought that you are a successful daytrader making lots of money. We all need to make money to get food on the table; it is called modern slavery.

            But take my advice, no money in the world can “make it up” for missed time with your family. She will leave (and take the kids) or find someone else giving her attention no matter how much money you throw on the table.

            I wish you and your readers all the best!

            • I think you’re trying to imply that I didn’t make money from the stock market, that’s OK, no need to argue, although I’m offended.

              To day trade, doesn’t require you to spend 24/7/356 depends on your style, so I don’t think you understand what I’m trying to say here.

              I meant to write all those reports and comment all the trading hours, all those would consume all your leisure time. Can I stop this by closing the blog and the forum? Sure I can, but that would mean I discard everything I did 24/7/356 for the past 4 years and 2 large websites, which is not a easy decision and I sure don’t have the courage to do that.

              • Anonymous

                Trading is basically a cruel game where most people lose money so that a small percentage can make much money. It is crucial to be honest with one self to protect hard earned money. I didn’t mean to offend you although it most likely can be understood that way.

                The first 2-3 years, I lost shitloads of money. Ok, it is a long story but first when I realized that it is not (only) my system that sucks but the way I trade; I let my emotions do most of my decisions and the result was butt ugly.

                I don’t remember when exactly or how but I got an “ahaa” moment, I realized and confessed to myself that I’m a loser. I had two options, do something about it or quit. I’m not a quitter. 

                When I realized that I’m a loser, it became more easy to focus on the real problem (my emotions) and thus set a more realistic target. Every day before I started, I was trying to visualize howto not lose any money today. I did not try to make money, I was happy if I did not lose any. Ok, I still lost money but not in at the same pace as before. Then at some point I got to +-0 result and it was then when things changed for me.

                I don’t know you but if you have problems with making results after your hard work after your market research, I would guess that you have emotional problems with your trades (your emotion takes over your knowledge).

                Lastly, I understand what you’re saying. I did not “trade” 24/7 and it is not pushing the buy or sell button that takes time but to analyze the data and understand the markets that takes 95% of the time. When you “know” what you should do, it is quite easy (read fast) to push the button and watch the show. I did write everything down (I still do) into before/after every trading day, everything from emotions to news, why did I take the entry at that level, why was it a winning or losing trade, why did it go wrong and why did I succeed etc etc. It was a lot of writing.

                I had the material to go through on the weekends, I read what did go right/wrong and tried to remember my mistakes so that I did not do these again.

                I still feel like a loser and I still try as hard as I can to not lose any money. I spend more time thinking of what could go wrong than of what could go right. I fear that if I start feeling like a winner, I will lose my focus and thus not take all information into consideration before my decisions. I also do not celebrate winning trades and a loss is “cost of doing business”. I do however try to analyze losing trades and figure out what did go wrong, what did I do wrong etc.

                Often when we do not succeed, we are trying too hard.

  • uempel

    SPX long term weekly shows resistances at 1281 and 1306, but notice the weekly MA 55, which is exactly where the DMA 200 is: 1265 resp 1264.

  • Anonymous

    some pretty crazy pre market moves.

    on the hourly /ES it looks like it MIGHT be a flash higher, above yesterday’s high (not the overnight high though) to hit stops…before continuing down today. just a guess – but something you see often. usually a long wick in the opposing direction of the longer term move. this was happening on SPY all week…long wick on the 5 minute usually just over the 20MA…and then the real move in the opposing direction of the wick.

  • Anonymous

    That is why I gave up day trading, it was the wife or the trading. It was not hard to make the choice but I have to admit that I got addicted to day trading (and I’m not a gambler, I don’t play poker, lotto nor other money games but this one got me). She felt like living alone and frankly speaking, daytrading took all my time.

    However, I’m much happier now swing trading for several reasons. It is not the trading that is hard but reading and understanding the markets (=the work behind).

    I’m so sorry, I have not read your site good enough so I thought that you daytrade and makes lot’s of money. Of course I understand that you also need to make money to get food on the table; it is called modern slavery. You need to eat, being single or not.

    I wish you and all your readers all the best!

  • Anonymous

    Hi Cobra,
    It looks to me like the Non Stop actually went to BUY a couple of days ago with BPSPX and BPNDX crossovers.  Was another trigger missing?  Thanks. (I think there’s a good chance of a whipsaw here anyways)

    • No, it’s triggered yesterday. BPSPX crossed above MA a few days earlier but it’s not a confirmed crossover, I have another algo to determine whether it’s a valid crossover or not.

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