12/07/2011 Trading Signals


The bottom line, news driven market, no matter you normally wave your hoof or claw, let’s wait until the dust settles down.

Both VIX and SPX were up on the same day for 3 days in a row. It happened only once for the last 2,000 trading days. If you check for the last 5,000 trading days, there’re 12 cases though, 50 to 50 chances a green day the next day, so not much edges.


14 Comments on "12/07/2011 Trading Signals"
  1. Comment left on:
    December 7, 2011 at 5:46 pm
    Anonymous says:

    John Bollinger on Fast Money…”everyone is bearish, so i’m bullish”.  -_-

    is everyone really bearish?  i thought everyone was pretty bullish…everyone is citing “seasonality” to buy this market…

    • Comment left on:
      December 7, 2011 at 7:18 pm
      steveo77 says:

      Yes it is tough to figure out what “everyone” is thinking. Stick to indicators.

      • Comment left on:
        December 7, 2011 at 7:28 pm
        Anonymous says:

        oh hey…you’re the hawaiian blog guy?  i was living in hawaii last year for a few months.  tough trading hours…but i loved the life.  i’m thinking about moving out there again to do it, even with the odd hours.

        • Comment left on:
          December 7, 2011 at 8:03 pm
          steveo77 says:

          If you can make a living trading, would be good, but cost of living is high, and economy is turning down it seems, lagging mainland by 2 years as always.

    • Comment left on:
      December 7, 2011 at 8:10 pm
      Anonymous says:

      i sense extreme bullish sentiment like the one we had in mid November. lot of retail traders screaming for 1300, 1320, 1340 targets on the S&P by year-end, plus window dressing.

  2. Comment left on:
    December 7, 2011 at 5:52 pm
    Anonymous says:

    Couple notes:

    1) The CPCE (equity put/call) has been running nearly equal to CPC (total put/call) the last few days. I see this as intermediate term bullish regardless of what happens short term because retail traders never are right in the big picture, and these are rare readings. However, it could have short-term bearish implications.

    2) NYMO down two days in a row with the market up. Seems like a small divergence that could eventually lead to a pullback.

    3) The dow closed above its Nov 8th high whereas the S&P has not, so by cobra’s “dow leads”, the S&P will eventually close above 1275 in the near future.

    It seems like all this points to some short term weakness followed by strength into the end of the year, or conversely, some short term strength followed by a sell off. Either way, the safer bet longer term seems to be on the bull side. The few bearish indications are more short term in nature.

    • Comment left on:
      December 8, 2011 at 1:37 am
      Anonymous says:

      Also, look at them SPX candlesticks for the last couple of days. This is “a new pattern” not seen in some time (=lower volatility, also intraday).

      IMO the pullback is too obvious and therefore it might break-out upside.

  3. Comment left on:
    December 7, 2011 at 6:06 pm
    happy chen says:

    why I can post here but not in intraday watering page?

    • Comment left on:
      December 7, 2011 at 10:29 pm
      Cobra says:

      You have to register there.

  4. Comment left on:
    December 7, 2011 at 6:12 pm
    Anonymous says:


  5. Comment left on:
    December 7, 2011 at 6:35 pm
    uempel says:

    BPNYA up 0.91%, BPCOMPQ up 0.07%, BPNDX up 1.64%, BPSPX up 0.99%, BPOEX and BPINDU are flat.
    Here a close look at BPSPX:

    • Comment left on:
      December 7, 2011 at 8:19 pm
      Anonymous says:

      What’s your take for tomorrow?

      • Comment left on:
        December 8, 2011 at 5:43 am
        uempel says:

        I have a clear reversal signal for Friday, but it does not look as though it’s major signal. Anyway, if Thursday is weak I’ll go long at the close, and if Thursday is strong I’ll short the bounce. Market is tricky at the moment and I’m extremely careful.

  6. .
    December 7, 2011 at 10:00 pm

    […] best strategy is to stay sideline, which can be seen from the demo account reported in today’s Trading Signals, as according to the rule, I should close the long and (have to) hold the trapped short overnight, […]

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