12/07/2011 Trading Signals

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


The bottom line, news driven market, no matter you normally wave your hoof or claw, let’s wait until the dust settles down.

Both VIX and SPX were up on the same day for 3 days in a row. It happened only once for the last 2,000 trading days. If you check for the last 5,000 trading days, there’re 12 cases though, 50 to 50 chances a green day the next day, so not much edges.


  • Anonymous

    John Bollinger on Fast Money…”everyone is bearish, so i’m bullish”.  -_-

    is everyone really bearish?  i thought everyone was pretty bullish…everyone is citing “seasonality” to buy this market…

    • Yes it is tough to figure out what “everyone” is thinking. Stick to indicators.

      • Anonymous

        oh hey…you’re the hawaiian blog guy?  i was living in hawaii last year for a few months.  tough trading hours…but i loved the life.  i’m thinking about moving out there again to do it, even with the odd hours.

        • If you can make a living trading, would be good, but cost of living is high, and economy is turning down it seems, lagging mainland by 2 years as always.

    • Anonymous

      i sense extreme bullish sentiment like the one we had in mid November. lot of retail traders screaming for 1300, 1320, 1340 targets on the S&P by year-end, plus window dressing.

  • Anonymous

    Couple notes:

    1) The CPCE (equity put/call) has been running nearly equal to CPC (total put/call) the last few days. I see this as intermediate term bullish regardless of what happens short term because retail traders never are right in the big picture, and these are rare readings. However, it could have short-term bearish implications.

    2) NYMO down two days in a row with the market up. Seems like a small divergence that could eventually lead to a pullback.

    3) The dow closed above its Nov 8th high whereas the S&P has not, so by cobra’s “dow leads”, the S&P will eventually close above 1275 in the near future.

    It seems like all this points to some short term weakness followed by strength into the end of the year, or conversely, some short term strength followed by a sell off. Either way, the safer bet longer term seems to be on the bull side. The few bearish indications are more short term in nature.

    • Anonymous

      Also, look at them SPX candlesticks for the last couple of days. This is “a new pattern” not seen in some time (=lower volatility, also intraday).

      IMO the pullback is too obvious and therefore it might break-out upside.

  • happy chen

    why I can post here but not in intraday watering page?

    • You have to register there.

  • Anonymous


  • uempel

    BPNYA up 0.91%, BPCOMPQ up 0.07%, BPNDX up 1.64%, BPSPX up 0.99%, BPOEX and BPINDU are flat.
    Here a close look at BPSPX:

    • Anonymous

      What’s your take for tomorrow?

      • uempel

        I have a clear reversal signal for Friday, but it does not look as though it’s major signal. Anyway, if Thursday is weak I’ll go long at the close, and if Thursday is strong I’ll short the bounce. Market is tricky at the moment and I’m extremely careful.

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