12/13/2011 Market Outlook (The Tale of VIX)


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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

First of all, starting from the this week:

  1. We’ll have a drill (test post) to make sure all the paid members are able to read member only posts. Our customer services would make sure every paid members have registered and login-ed and indeed are able to read the post. We’ll test every member’s email address as well.
  2. Then we’ll start to lock the daily report one by one gradually. This is to make sure a smooth transition to a paid member only site from a free site. Our customer services again would make sure every unexpected problems being solved before taking the next step further.

Although I’m sure, given the quality of the members management software it demonstrated in the last couple of weeks (when you did your registration) 99% paid members would have no problem in reading the member only posts but I just don’t want that 1% paid members feel frustrated for not being able to read if I suddenly lock all the reports, so the above steps are absolutely necessary. I thank you in advance for your patience. After all, we’ll spend many years together, so well begun is half done.

Meanwhile, those who’re still wondering to be or not to be (the member), this is your last chances to consider this $10 per month deal, which I can guarantee you won’t be available in the future. Our regular monthly membership rate would be at least $29.99 per month. Yes, we’ll have a promotion now or then but the best promotion deal would never go below $19.99 and no way it’s a monthly rate, you’d have to pay, say, $249.99 to get this equivalent monthly rate , so take a little time to think about whether you'd like to take this opportunity or not. Consider we’re the stock you want to buy,  see us as still in our early IPO stage, and your fundamental analysis would be my demonstration of the perseverance and talent for the past 4 years, then it should be not very difficult to foresee our long-term growth potential. So again, don’t miss the deal. I honestly think this is one of a few best deals you could ever find.


Strictly speaking, before the 11/25 lows is broken, technically the SPY daily chart is not bearish, any pullback can be seen as merely a dent within an intermediate-term uptrend. However, this kind of analysis is meaningless in the real life trading because by the the time the 11/25 lows broken, it’d be too late, so today’s market analysis is a little bit more subjective.

I believe the fact, yesterday’s low was broken and we had yet another lower low today is enough to confirm the 1-2-3 Trend Change I mentioned yesterday, so chances are the 11/25 lows will be revisited (this part is, what I said above, a little subjective). At least evidences show chances are more selling ahead. The chart below shows the target as well as one of the two major reasons I believe more selling ahead – RSP leads down.

SPYEvilPlan

The chart below is another major reason I think the selling isn’t over: 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days followed by another red day, all the past cases were sold off hard thereafter.

2MDDWithin5Days

It’s not very bull friendly when the very first time VIX drops below its BB bottom.

VIX1stBBBottomTouch

The VIX hollow red bar could mean the VIX was bottomed therefore is not a bullish sign for SPX.

VIXDaily

As already mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, SPX down 0.8%+ while VIX also down, chances are more selling ahead, no to mention that tomorrow is not bullish either.

VIXDownOnSPXBigRed

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Translation

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

先通知一下,从本周起:

  1. 我会先发一个会员only的测试贴,所有已经付费的会员可以借此检查一下是否自己有足够的权限来看这个贴。我的目的是要确认每个已经付费的会员,都已经成功的注册,并且可以login读会员only的帖子。同时我也会测试各位会员是否能收到email。
  2. 完成上述测试后,我会逐步的锁定每天的报告,我会在解决了每一步转换期间暴露出来的所有问题后才进行更多的锁定,这个动作是保证从free site到member only site的无缝隙转换。

从目前的会员管理软件表现出来的质量看,绝大多数会员付费和注册的过程都很顺利,因此我确定,我如果突然锁定所有的发帖的话,99%的会员是不会有不能读会员only报告的问题的。我只是不希望那剩下的1%的会员会因为暂时不能读帖而感到很愤怒,毕竟是已经付了钱了。所以上述的两个步骤,我认为是非常必要的。希望大家能够理解和支持。在此先谢谢大家的耐心。毕竟,好的开端是成功的一半,我不希望一开始就让大家很失望。

同时,还没有决定是否加入的,这应该是最后的机会了。$10一个月的deal,我可以保证以后是绝对不会再有了。以后的标准收费将不会少于$29.99每月。我们当然时不时的会有优惠期,但这个优惠价,最低不会低于$19.99每月,并且铁定不是按月付费,您得一次性付一年$249.99才能有相当于这个每月的$19的会费。所以稍微花点时间考虑一下吧,过了这村,就没有那店了。我看到有个同学的比喻很好,就是把我这个看成一支股票,现在我还是在IPO阶段,以我过去四年表现出来的毅力和天才,我这只股票应该有很大的长期增长潜力。我觉得这个比喻是再恰当不过了。老实说,我自己也确确实实认为这个deal是非常少见的好deal。谢谢!


严格的讲,在11月25号的low跌破之前,SPY daily图形都可解释成上升趋势中的正常回调。当然这样的分析不具有交易的意义,因为等到11月25号的low跌破的时候再确认中期跌势就已经太迟了,所以今天的大盘分析多少带点主观猜测的成分。

我认为今天跌破昨天的low应该可以算是进一步确认了昨天的1-2-3 Trend Change,所以下面去测试11月25号的low的可能性很大(这个就是我上面说的,多少有点猜测的成分)。至少我有证据表明,下跌还没有结束。下面的图说明了target以及我认为还没有跌完的主要理由之一,RSP leads down。

SPYEvilPlan

下面的图是还没有跌完的另一个主要理由:2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days后又red的话,此后还有的跌。

2MDDWithin5Days

VIX第一次跌破BB bottom,后面也是不怎么牛牛友好。

VIX1stBBBottomTouch

VIX的空心红棒棒看着很像是的底的样子,这个也是说SPX可能还有的跌。

VIXDaily

下面的图,今天的Trading Signals里已经提到了,SPX down 0.8%+, VIX also down,此后继续跌的几率比较大。

VIXDownOnSPXBigRed

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Anonymous

    thanks for reprt

  • Perhaps a little bounce is in order before more selling but Mr. Market rarely gives second chances so gap lower open and never look back seems more likely.

  • Anonymous

    I was thinking of mentioning VIX:VXV as another top signal, but then I realized that it did not really work last December and it could be due to seasonality that people do not expect that much volatility in the near term as compared to mid-term. But I believe that USD making a higher high is worth mentioning.

    Thx

    • I saw that VIX:VXV chart too, just thought it’s not extreme enough.

  • Anonymous

    Just did calculate Signal by hollow VIX ticker at bottom after SPX red two days, SPX next day goes red with 100% chance (It happened twice so far. 2/26/2009, and 8/4/2006)

    http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=152926&fromuid=16673

  • Anonymous

    Hi Cobra glad you running the test as I was redirected to the sign up page.

  • Anonymous

    thx,ding

  • Anonymous

    thx, ding

  • uempel

    DMA 377 is at 1224.19 and DMA 55 at 1217.12. Tuesday’s low at 1219.43 looks ok to me, but I’m not betting on it, especially with regard to next Friday. As to my betting – I want to ride a biggish move Wedneday afternoon/evening. Don’t know if it’s up or down, but I do know that it will buck the trend of the first few hours…

  • Flat.  Looking for another chance to short near 1260.  Unfortunately, that may be a popular plan…..  

  • Michel G

    euro is loosing 1,30 level…!! Big gap down?

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