12/14/2011 Market Outlook (More Selling Ahead)


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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

First of all, starting from the this week:

  1. We’ll have a drill (test post) to make sure all the paid members are able to read member only posts. Our customer services would make sure every paid members have registered and login-ed and indeed are able to read the post. We’ll test every member’s email address as well.
  2. Then we’ll start to lock the daily report one by one gradually. This is to make sure a smooth transition to a paid member only site from a free site. Our customer services again would make sure every unexpected problems being solved before taking the next step further.

Although I’m sure, given the quality of the members management software it demonstrated in the last couple of weeks (when you did your registration) 99% paid members would have no problem in reading the member only posts but I just don’t want that 1% paid members feel frustrated for not being able to read if I suddenly lock all the reports, so the above steps are absolutely necessary. I thank you in advance for your patience. After all, we’ll spend many years together, so well begun is half done.

Meanwhile, those who’re still wondering to be or not to be (the member), this is your last chances to consider this $10 per month deal, which I can guarantee you won’t be available in the future. Our regular monthly membership rate would be at least $29.99 per month. Yes, we’ll have a promotion now or then but the best promotion deal would never go below $19.99 and no way it’s a monthly rate, you’d have to pay, say, $249.99 to get this equivalent monthly rate , so take a little time to think about whether you'd like to take this opportunity or not. Consider we’re the stock you want to buy,  see us as still in our early IPO stage, and your fundamental analysis would be my demonstration of the perseverance and talent for the past 4 years, then it should be not very difficult to foresee our long-term growth potential. So again, don’t miss the deal. I honestly think this is one of a few best deals you could ever find.


I see continuation pattern on the SPY 60 min chart so chances are we’ll have another dip tomorrow morning. Maintain the 1-2-3 Formation text book target.

SPYEvilPlan

A little bit bigger picture, I believe more selling ahead. Two reasons:

  • SPX down 3 days in a row usually means more selling ahead.

SPXDown3Days

  • 7 hourly red bars on SPY 60 min chart also means more selling ahead but before that we could see a sharp rebound first, so if we indeed see a morning dip tomorrow be careful of a sharp reversal.

SPY7RedHourlyBars

In addition, there’re 2 things I’d like your attention:

  • Non-Stop primary sell signal could be trigged. However, since the bearish crossover is not marginal, so I’d like to wait for one more day in case it’s a whipsaw.

NonStop

  • Hindenburg Omen could be triggered which suppose to be bad for bulls. If interested, you can click the link for more details, my guess is not many people believe this omen now because the introducing of various ETFs in NYSE has affected the omen dramatically.

 NYMO

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Translation

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

先通知一下,从本周起:

  1. 我会先发一个会员only的测试贴,所有已经付费的会员可以借此检查一下是否自己有足够的权限来看这个贴。我的目的是要确认每个已经付费的会员,都已经成功的注册,并且可以login读会员only的帖子。同时我也会测试各位会员是否能收到email。
  2. 完成上述测试后,我会逐步的锁定每天的报告,我会在解决了每一步转换期间暴露出来的所有问题后才进行更多的锁定,这个动作是保证从free site到member only site的无缝隙转换。

从目前的会员管理软件表现出来的质量看,绝大多数会员付费和注册的过程都很顺利,因此我确定,我如果突然锁定所有的发帖的话,99%的会员是不会有不能读会员only报告的问题的。我只是不希望那剩下的1%的会员会因为暂时不能读帖而感到很愤怒,毕竟是已经付了钱了。所以上述的两个步骤,我认为是非常必要的。希望大家能够理解和支持。在此先谢谢大家的耐心。毕竟,好的开端是成功的一半,我不希望一开始就让大家很失望。

同时,还没有决定是否加入的,这应该是最后的机会了。$10一个月的deal,我可以保证以后是绝对不会再有了。以后的标准收费将不会少于$29.99每月。我们当然时不时的会有优惠期,但这个优惠价,最低不会低于$19.99每月,并且铁定不是按月付费,您得一次性付一年$249.99才能有相当于这个每月的$19的会费。所以稍微花点时间考虑一下吧,过了这村,就没有那店了。我看到有个同学的比喻很好,就是把我这个看成一支股票,现在我还是在IPO阶段,以我过去四年表现出来的毅力和天才,我这只股票应该有很大的长期增长潜力。我觉得这个比喻是再恰当不过了。老实说,我自己也确确实实认为这个deal是非常少见的好deal。谢谢!


Chart pattern看起来是continuation pattern,因此我认为明天早盘多半还会有个dip。维持1-2-3 Formation text book target。

SPYEvilPlan

大点的方向,两个理由,我认为还没有跌完。

  • SPX连跌3天,绝大多数情况下意味着还有的跌。

SPXDown3Days

  • SPY又是连着7根hourly red bar。这个表示还有的跌,当然可能先有大反弹,所以小心明天早盘dip后突然反转。

SPY7RedHourlyBars

另外还有两个要注意的地方:

  • Non-Stop primary sell signal可能触发了,不过由于下穿得不是很厉害,所以我觉得再等一天比较好,以防是whipsaw。

NonStop

  • 应该是Hindenburg Omen触发了,总之是凶兆,具体大家自己点击链接看吧,反正现在已经没有多少人信了,理由是ETF影响了这个Omen。

 NYMO

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Anonymous

    Thanks, Cobra!  If INDU leads, I’ll maintain my bullish stance as long as it remains above 50day SMA.  

  • Hi Cobra!  I haven’t posted because I haven’t felt like I really had anything to contribute but now that I’m a paying member I do have a question I hope you can answer for me.  Could you tell me what the top indicator is on the RSP:$CPCE chart?  It’s the one you mention as a Primary Sell Signal.  Thank you.

    I appreciate all that you do here and I look forward to learning as much as I can from you.

    • MACD(21,55,1), it’s actually watching for EMA21 and EMA55 crossover. Use MACD(21,55,1) the crossover is more clear. By the way, you don’t have to be the paid member to ask this question. But thanks, really appreciate your support.

  • Anonymous

    thx, ding

  • Anonymous

    Cobra, nice report. Do you still believe the Santa rally this year? When did the Santa rally usually start? thanks.

    • Allan Sun

      There could be no Santa Rally this year, as 

      1. Today, one of the guest speakers in Bloomberg “taking stock” program has already hedged his long position.

      2. Traders didn’t build up long positions in early Dec due to the uncertainty posted by EU summit.

      But I mis-believed the Santa myself… 🙁

    • I still do believe. I’ve answered you question in Portfolio Update comment area.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks.

  • Anonymous

    Hi Cobra,

    The table at the end of the report (“Summary of Signals”) has a typo.  It still says Cobra Impulse in BUY mode.  Thanks.

    • sweenrose

      I asked the same question when I first started following the CIS.  “Mode” is different from “Position.”  The mode means that the CIS has a bullish bias, but its current position is flat (having been stopped out).  

  • uempel

    BPNYA down 3.57%, BPCOMPQ down 2.30%, BPNDX down 7.14%, BPSPX down 2.33%, BPOEX and BPINDU are flat.
    Sectors: BPMATE (Materials) down 9.09%, BPENER (Energy) down 11.11%, BPINDU (Industrials) down 5.56%, BPINFO (Technology) down 1.96%, BPDISC (Consumer Discretionary) down 2.0%, all other sectors are flat.

    BPSPX chart suggests further downside:

    • Thanks, nice chart. I cannot wait everyday after close for your BPI chart. 

      • uempel

        …and I can hardly wait for your Market Outlook! Cobra, you are really doing a great job. The selection of data you show is always interesting – and for day-trades/swing-trades it’s pivotal..

  • Anonymous

    Hi Cobra,

    Is it possible to send an email to members at buying and selling points for daily trading signals? Thanks.

    • Not possible. It’s actually against the law in some senses. I need find time to improve the CIS so that you don’t need the intraday experiences to follow its signals. But it’s going to take awhile, I’m really busy everyday.

      • Anonymous

        hi, Cobra:
        Would you please tell us the exactly enter and exit time (hh:mm:ss) of your portfolio? So we can learn more about timing. Or you can setup as member access only, thanks!

        • You mean the daily Portfolio Update? I’ve been given exactly entry and exit ever since the project started. You might not know what “buy stop” is, I guess? You see here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/what-is-buy-stop-order-and-why/. And as for exit, I just use the close price. I give entry and exit signals the day before they’re about to be triggered. So you should pretty much have everything. 

  • Anonymous

    Crude oil broke down to and below its lower BB.(With gold already collapsing below its lower BB)    Summation Index ($nysi) broke below last week’s low and every blogger, technician, and poster calling for a Santa rally.   This is starting to look like the early stages of August’s decline (with certain MA crossover’s about to occur) so expect to see several red days in a row with a few hanging man’s interspersed in between to prevent  $nymo from getting too  oversold too quickly as it did at its November lows.

    Let’s just say we’re in a unique window right now for a decline.

  • uempel

    A close look at the SPX 60 min chart:

    • uempel

      60 min chart predicts a big move for Thursday: 3.47 am Thursday morning S&P futures and Europe suggest the move will be to the upside.

      • Anonymous

        nice call.

  • Anonymous

    Cobra:
    Can you please teach me how you chart $NYSI, SBPSPX, and, $BPNDX  as buy/sell signals. What are the dotted and solid lines?
    Thanks for your help

    • It’s just to watch a crossover on EMA(20).

  • HighRev

    Cobra, you said that the Hindenburg Omen could be triggered. I want to ask for clarification since it looks to me like it was triggered as I see all the conditions having been met. Am I missing/overlooking something? Did you mean to say “may have been” and you just didn’t want to be categorical?

    And if it was indeed triggered, wouldn’t that have been a confirmation of a Hindy from a couple of weeks ago?

    TIA for looking at this again.

    • It’s triggered. And yes we need a 2nd omen to confirm.

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