SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

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I still believe the selling isn’t over yet. See the chart below, I see overlap plus A = B, so the Thursday and Friday’s rebound look pretty much a corrective wave up to me, therefore at least so far I don’t see any evidences that a strong year end rally has started. The thing I’m not sure is whether there’s another push up left on Monday to form a 3 Push Up pattern before reversing down. Such a 3rd push up, if any, is the key to watch:

  1. If cannot even make a higher high, then it almost confirms that the rebound was over.
  2. If huge up Monday, then I need review my bearish bias.

SPXEvilPlan

Now allow me to summarize all the bearish excuses I’ve mentioned recently.

  • 3 hollow red bars (Open low close higher)! So chances are the VIX would rebound which in turn put pressure on SPX, at least SPX wouldn’t be up huge. Besides, although a very low VIX:VXV doesn’t necessarily mean a top now but at least there’s not much room for VIX to drop. So trading wise, if you’re heavily betting on the long side, it might not be a very bad idea to buy a little VIX Futures or ETFs to hedge your position. Please be noted, since it’s just a hedge, so you should be prepared to lose some, as it’s similar to the premium you paid for your insurance, where in most cases, you wouldn’t get the premium back.

VIX
VIXtoVXVRatio

  • Because it’s a red option expiration week, so chances are high that we’ll see either another red week or at least a lower low the next week.

RedOEWeek

  • TLT seems forming a bullish formation. The rise of the TLT usually means the money flows into the debt market therefore is bad for the stock market.

TLTDaily

  • As mentioned in 12/14 Market Outlook, SPX 3 consecutive red bars usually means a lower close ahead.
  • As mentioned in 12/14 Market Outlook, SPY 7 consecutive red hourly bars usually means a rebound (indeed the Thursday and Friday) then pullback again to at least test the 12/14 lows.
  • As mentioned in 12/15 Market Outlook, Non-Stop model sell signal has very high chances indicating more selling ahead.

Now let’s talk about the target. I’ve mentioned many reasons in 11/25 Market Outlook that at least the 11/25 lows will be revisited. Chances are the low will be broken, because a visible NYMO positive divergence is needed before a bottom of some kind is possible.

NYMO

The chart below shows another reason for targeting at 11/25 lows, because rarely had ES (SPX e-mini futures) left a gap unfilled. So the gap shown on the chart is very likely the bear’s attacking target.

ES60min

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Translation

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

首先,会员请注意检查自己login以后是否能看Member Only Test Page里的内容。这两天通过这个测试页,我已经解决了大量付费但却没有注册或者不知道自己login密码的情况,这两天明显的要求customer services的少了,因此这个测试页的目的基本达到了。从下周起我会开始逐步锁定我每天的报告(就是说慢慢的所有的报告就只能login才能看了),因此也请还没有入会的同学抓紧时间。加入请按这里


我还是认为没有跌完。从图形上看,Overlap加A = B,所以周四和周五的反弹仅仅是个corrective up,因此至少目前还看不出来一波强有力的year end rally已经开始了。目前我不确定的是,是否周一还有一次push up,以构成3 Push Up,然后才反转向下。这个the 3rd push up,如果有的话,很关键:

  1. 如果没有能够higher high就掉下来的话,那么基本就可以确认反弹结束了,下面会继续跌。
  2. 如果周一大涨特涨,那么我需要重新审视我目前的bearish bias。

SPXEvilPlan

下面总结一下最近一段时间提到的看跌理由。

  • VIX三个空心红棒棒了(Open low close higher),怎么都该反转了,这个应该对SPX不利,至少不会大涨特涨。另外,虽然VIX:VXV很低,不一定就是顶部,但是至少VIX继续下跌的空间已经不大了,所以操作上讲,如果你多仓很重的话,也许可以买点VIX Futures or ETFs来hedge你的多仓。注意,既然是hedge,就是要准备牺牲的,这个相当于你买的保险,通常premium是白出了。

VIX
VIXtoVXVRatio

  • 因为本周是red option expiration week,所以很大几率,下周不是收红就是会跌破本周的low。

RedOEWeek

  • TLT看着是要向上突破的样子,一般债市涨,股市会跌,因为钱都跑到债市里去了。

TLTDaily

  • 我在12/14 Market Outlook里提到了,SPX 3 consecutive red bars,往往意味lower close ahead。
  • 我在12/14 Market Outlook里提到了,SPY 7 consecutive red hourly bars,意味着反弹,但是至少还会测试12/14的lows。
  • 我在12/15 Market Outlook里提到了,Non-Stop model出sell信号后,下面继续跌的可能性还是很大的。

最后谈一下target。我在11/25 Market Outlook里讲理一大堆理由,都是说11/25 lows至少还是会去测试一下的,且多半会有lower low,因为必须有visible NYMO positive divergence

NYMO

下面的图是关于target的另一个理由,很少ES (SPX e-mini futures)会有unfilled gap的,因此下面那么大个gap很可能是熊熊攻击的目标,这个其实也是说11/25的lows还是要去的。

ES60min

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.