SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE HIGHER HIGH TOMORROW BUT A PULLBACK OF SOME KIND IS DUE

Three cents:

  1. Higher high ahead. Again, please pay attention to my wording, it’s HIGHER HIGH not HIGHER CLOSE. So as long as tomorrow’s high is higher than today’s high then the forecast is fulfilled, it doesn’t have to close in green.
  2. As mentioned in the yesterday’s report, if decisive new high today, then the 3 Push Up pattern is invalid. We will have to wait for the next reversal pattern before speculating a top of some kind. This conclusion basically guarantees the very first pullback is buy, because most likely, at least today’s high or any high thereafter if higher than today, would be revisited before any serious pullback. Why? Because you Earth people always like to try twice before trying the opposite direction. And this is why for most top or bottom, we usually have Double Top or Double Bottom, occasionally, we see Triple Top or Triple Bottom, but never Quater Top or Quater Bottom. You Earth people, by the way, too easy to give up, unlike we Martians, never give up, well, I’ll skip the next 10 thousands words criticising you Earth people…
  3. Also as mentioned in the yesterday’s report, a huge up today would force me to yell overbought. Because the signals I used to watch for overbought are no ordinary signals, therefore whenever I yell overbought, we’d see a pullback as early as (pay attention to as early as) the next day. That said, again and again, I don’t imply that you should short, because apparently short is against the current trend therefore is very very dangerous. From all the feedbacks and comments I got today, I found people tend to listen only 50% of what I say, so if another 4% huge up tomorrow and your bear claws got burnt, just don’t come back blaming me. Then why did I tell you such an overbought nonsense? Because this is a market report, which is totally different from a trading report, in which, I must tell you all the signals that worked in the PAST (pay attention to the PAST), I cannot, simply because I don’t believe some signals therefore pretend not to see them. As for all the signals I reported, whether they could be trusted and how to use them, it’s all up to you, not me.

The chart below is my next evil plan based on the pattern analysis. Again another wild-est-est-est guess. The main consideration is today’s bar looks a lot like an exhaustion bar, so after a higher high tomorrow to fulfill my number 1 call today (see above), we might see a pullback that finally could last for a few days. Please be noted, although I drew a cycle on the chart implying a similarity, I don’t mean we’ll have the same pullback magnitude. It could be larger or smaller, I don’t know, I just meant to show direction only.

EvilPlan

Then why a higher high ahead? Because today is a Major Accumulation Day which means a strong up momentum, so according to the law of inertia, it almost guarantees a higher high tomorrow.

HHGuaranteed

OK, now let’s talk about overbought. I see too many overbought signals, therefore cannot list all of them here. So just don’t tell me, hey, you see, RSI or ChiOsc or MACD or blah blah blah, because even with all those usual signals sitting at very extreme levels that rarely seen, dare not I say a red day tomorrow. Nowadays, as I said many times, to be a bull, all you need are just imagination, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 100% up day tomorrow to all time high. Well, to be safe, in case we rose more than 100% tomorrow, please forgive my lacking of imagination, really, please.

NYMO becomes extreme again. I said before, this is one of a few rare signals that cannot be argued.

NYMO

T2112 which is Percent of NYSE stocks 2 StdDev above MA(40), is now at 4th record high.

T2112

T2122 shows 95% NYSE stocks are now at 4-week highs.

T2122

The 2 charts below are for record only purpose because they really are very rare.

Nasdaq 100 intraday cumulative TICK hit 10 years high, a very big WOW! People just love the Nasdaq stocks so much, so keep buying and buying and buying, the whole day. Well, speechless.

NDXCumTICK

The chart below is similar to T2112, just it calculates the number of S&P 500 stocks 1 StdDev above MA(50). It shows only a few cases in year 2003 could match what we have today, that’s at least 20 years record.

1StdDevAboveBB50

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY BUT MAINTAIN SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 1,000

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *UP 3 of 6 *OVERBOUGHT
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE HIGHER HIGH TOMORROW BUT A PULLBACK OF SOME KIND IS DUE

三点说明:

  1. Higher high ahead。这里再次强调一下,注意我的用词,是higher high,不是higher close,也就是说明天只要高过今天的high就算我对了,不是一定要收绿的。
  2. 昨天的报告提到了,如果decisive new high,那么3 Push Up pattern无效,下面还得再等一个reversal pattern才有top的可能。这基本保证了第一次pullback是buy,因为前高至少还会再被测试一次,才有top的可能。为什么?你们地球人做什么都喜欢试两次,然后才可能调头,这就是为什么顶和底大都是Double Top / Double Bottom的原因,偶然会有Triple Top / Triple Bottom,但绝没有 Quater Top / Quater Bottom。你们地球人太容易放弃,不象我们火星人,那个,什么,此处省略一万字。
  3. 昨天的报告也提了,今天大涨特涨,我会喊overbought,而因为我看overbought的信号都不是一般的信号,所以一般我说overbought,最快(注意最快这个词)第二天就会有回调。当然,我不是说你要做空,因为做空是against trend,因此是非常非常危险的。我发现我讲的话很多人只听一半。明天再大涨个4%,把熊爪子烧没了,不要来怪我哈。那,我为什么还要报告这个?因为这是报告,跟trading是两码事,我必须报告我看到的过去(注意过去这个词)被证明有效的所有的信号,我不能因为我这次不信就假装没有看见。至于这些信号,可不可信,怎么使用,那是你自己要决定的事情,OK?

下面的图是基于pattern分析得出的evil plan,属于wild-est-est-est的guess。今天是exhaustion bar的可能性很大,因此明天探新高实现我的1号预言后,会有持续几天的pullback。当然,我不是暗示,我们这次会有类似上次的pullback幅度,我不清楚,可能更大,也可能更小,下图只是示意方向。

EvilPlan

那么,为什么说higher high ahead?因为今天是Major Accumulation Day,表示上涨的动能很大,所以根据惯性定律,基本保证明天会有higher high。

HHGuaranteed

下面看看怎么个overbought法。信号实在太多,所以就只能列出比较特别的信号了,那些非常普通的的,RSIChiOscMACD什么的,就麻烦别告诉我了。既使有这么多非常特别的信号extreme了,我都不敢说明天要跌,你那些普通信号,我哪敢信哈。还是那话,这年头,作牛,只要有想象力就行了,所以明天大涨100%直接all time high,我都不会表示惊奇。恩,如果明天涨不止100%的话,还请原谅我的想象力不够。

NYMO又extreme了,我说过,这个信号是不能argue的。

NYMO

T2112,Percent of NYSE stocks 2 StdDev above MA(40),这是历史第4的纪录。

T2112

T2122,95%的NYSE stocks都4-week high了。

T2122

下面两幅图只是做记录用,因为比较稀奇。

Nasdaq 100 intraday cumulative TICK, 10年新高,big WOW,大家太爱Nasdaq了,一整天都拼命买啊,无语。

NDXCumTICK

再下面的图原理跟T2112一样,只不过计算的是number of S&P 500 stocks 1 StdDev above MA(50)。这个,20年的历史,只有2003年有过类似的纪录,非常非常extreme了。

1StdDevAboveBB50

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY BUT MAINTAIN SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 1,000

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *UP 3 of 6 *OVERBOUGHT
* = New update.