SHORT-TERM: WHATEVER UP TOMORROW MIGHT BE ERASED THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
Maintain the forecast that a top of some kind is close. How the market revisits the 10/27 highs would provide more clues about whether we’re going to Galaxy far far away or indeed a top of some kind is close. So let’s wait and see.
A very unique thing today is SPX rose 1%+ but TICK closed below 0, which from the back test below we can see:
- Not so bull friendly tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, the day after the day after tomorrow and in 2 weeks.
- Short at the close today, hold until the very first SPX red day, the winning rate WAS 92%. In another words, any gains after today’s close, on average, would be erased in 1.4 trading days, which is Thursday the latest.
- I’ve marked all the past similar cases from chart 8.3.8a SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2004 to 8.3.8c SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2010. Take a look if interested. As far as I can see, 8 out of 13 cases happened around a pivot point (either top or bottom).
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET
For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.
For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.
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Chinese Transcript
SHORT-TERM: WHATEVER UP TOMORROW MIGHT BE ERASED THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
暂时维持a top of some kind is close的预测，大盘怎么测试10/27 highs应该会提供更多的线索，到底是还有的涨还是顶部已经不远了，所以等等看吧。
今天比较特别的地方是SPX涨了1%，但是TICK却收在0以下，从下面的测试看：
- 明天，后天，大后天，还有两周后都不怎么牛牛友好。
- 今天收盘做空，死扛到SPX收红为止，有92%的成功率。换句话说，就是今天收盘以后的所有涨幅，平均1.4个交易日，也就是说，最迟周四都会跌回来。
- 关于这种情况的所有过去的例子，有兴趣的话可以参见8.3.8a SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2004 to 8.3.8c SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2010。其中8 out of 13都在转折点附近。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET
For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.
For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.
| SUMMARY OF SIGNALS: | ||||||||||||||||
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| * = New update. |
November 8, 2011 at 9:37 pm
Hey Cobra – Just a thanks for your hard work. This is one of the hidden gems in the market and while I hope you make some money off of it, I hope it never gets too big and losses its unique flavor. Thanks again.
November 8, 2011 at 11:54 pm
Thanks, I hope I won’t lose my uniqueness too. 🙂
November 8, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Another amazing analysis! Thanks Cobra!
November 8, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Thank you Cobra, you are the Best!
November 8, 2011 at 10:45 pm
Cobra, I remember there’s a phantom bar to 119.0 for spy in October. Do you think it’s still valid and will be visited in the near future? Thanks a lot!
November 8, 2011 at 11:50 pm
The only Phantom bar left on the SPY daily chart is at $128.62. That $119 disappeared, so no longer valid.
November 9, 2011 at 1:45 am
thank you, cobra!
November 8, 2011 at 10:54 pm
Well if it marks either a top or a bottom only a bottom is possible. I am considering slowly legging into a short position.
November 8, 2011 at 11:56 pm
Don’t front run the market, I usually a few days even weeks earlier. Wait until I give up my top call, then probably it’s the time. 🙂
November 8, 2011 at 11:28 pm
Cobra,
Please have a comment on Dave Fry and HFT Alert founder Steve Hammer video in http://www.etfdigest.com/davesdaily/ and TICK charts.
November 8, 2011 at 11:55 pm
Thanks, maybe another day. I’m really tired…
November 9, 2011 at 12:07 am
OK and thanks, too.
November 9, 2011 at 12:36 am
Thanks Cobra,
DT but bull-biased. buy-dip since last week.
Swing trade.
200SMA 1273 (swing top)
377SMA 1215 (swing bottom)
November 9, 2011 at 1:10 am
On the monthly SPX 1275 shows MA 9 and 13 as resistance. A durable breakthrough lasting into December would be a very bullish signal. Does Santa have the magic wand? At the moment things look bright, much better than in 2008, but a drop under 1210 would change the picture immediately (that’s a mere 5% decline, nothing special these days…).
November 9, 2011 at 7:25 am
SP500 Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/sp500-time-ratio.html
November 9, 2011 at 8:50 am
Gerald, not only the time ratio: SPX October rally 1075/1293 was roughly 1.618% of the August rally which went up from 1101 to 1230. Thus, the pattern could now be complete – unless SPX rises above 1300 and triggers a bullish signal.
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November 9, 2011 at 12:46 pm
OIL Fibo…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/oil-fibo.html