11/08/2011 Market Outlook (SPX up 1% while TICK closed below 0)


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SHORT-TERM: WHATEVER UP TOMORROW MIGHT BE ERASED THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW

Maintain the forecast that a top of some kind is close. How the market revisits the 10/27 highs would provide more clues about whether we’re going to Galaxy far far away or indeed a top of some kind is close. So let’s wait and see.

A very unique thing today is SPX rose 1%+ but TICK closed below 0, which from the back test below we can see:

  1. Not so bull friendly tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, the day after the day after tomorrow and in 2 weeks.
  2. Short at the close today, hold until the very first SPX red day, the winning rate WAS 92%. In another words, any gains after today’s close, on average, would be erased in 1.4 trading days, which is Thursday the latest.
  3. I’ve marked all the past similar cases from chart 8.3.8a SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2004 to 8.3.8c SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2010. Take a look if interested. As far as I can see, 8 out of 13 cases happened around a pivot point (either top or bottom).

Up1PButTICKBelowZero

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: WHATEVER UP TOMORROW MIGHT BE ERASED THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW

暂时维持a top of some kind is close的预测,大盘怎么测试10/27 highs应该会提供更多的线索,到底是还有的涨还是顶部已经不远了,所以等等看吧。

今天比较特别的地方是SPX涨了1%,但是TICK却收在0以下,从下面的测试看:

  1. 明天,后天,大后天,还有两周后都不怎么牛牛友好。
  2. 今天收盘做空,死扛到SPX收红为止,有92%的成功率。换句话说,就是今天收盘以后的所有涨幅,平均1.4个交易日,也就是说,最迟周四都会跌回来。
  3. 关于这种情况的所有过去的例子,有兴趣的话可以参见8.3.8a SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2004 to 8.3.8c SPX Up 1% while TICK Closed Red – 2010。其中8 out of 13都在转折点附近。

Up1PButTICKBelowZero

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Sam IAM

    Hey Cobra – Just a thanks for your hard work.  This is one of the hidden gems in the market and while I hope you make some money off of it, I hope it never gets too big and losses its unique flavor.  Thanks again. 

    • Thanks, I hope I won’t lose my uniqueness too. 🙂 

  • Anonymous

    Another amazing analysis!  Thanks Cobra!

  • Anonymous

    Thank you Cobra, you are the Best!

  • Cobra, I remember there’s a phantom bar to 119.0 for spy in October. Do you think it’s still valid and will be visited in the near future? Thanks a lot!

    • The only Phantom bar left on the SPY daily chart is at $128.62. That $119 disappeared, so no longer valid.

  • Well if it marks either a top or a bottom only a bottom is possible.  I am considering slowly legging into a short position.

    • Don’t front run the market, I usually a few days even weeks earlier. Wait until I give up my top call, then probably it’s the time. 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Cobra,
    Please have a comment on  Dave Fry and HFT Alert founder Steve Hammer video in http://www.etfdigest.com/davesdaily/ and TICK charts.

    • Thanks, maybe another day. I’m really tired… 

      • Anonymous

        OK and thanks, too.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Cobra,

    DT but bull-biased. buy-dip since last week.
    Swing trade.
    200SMA 1273 (swing top)
    377SMA 1215 (swing bottom)

  • uempel

    On the monthly SPX 1275 shows MA 9 and 13 as resistance. A durable breakthrough lasting into December would be a very bullish signal. Does Santa have the magic wand? At the moment things look bright, much better than in 2008, but a drop under 1210 would change the picture immediately (that’s a mere 5% decline, nothing special these days…).

    • uempel

      Gerald, not only the time ratio: SPX October rally 1075/1293 was roughly 1.618% of the August rally which went up from 1101 to 1230. Thus, the pattern could now be complete – unless SPX rises above 1300 and triggers a bullish signal.

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