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THE SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TREND IS DOWN, HOLDING SHORT POSITION OVERNIGHT
First of all, don’t forget we’ll have no Market Outlook tonight. And for all my American neighbors, enjoy your turkey!
The bottom line, I don’t see any bottom sign yet, but the market is oversold now, so I won’t be aggressive on the bear side as well. Chances are, we’ll see a lower low and a rebound. The question is when? My story is, well, it’s kind of history repeats itself story, so nothing fancy here: Tomorrow (I shall say tonight), the whole world paniced because the leader – the US stock market is closed, so the world simply runs around like flies with no head. Then on Friday the US market tanks with the whole world with a gap down open but then reverses up to perhaps close in green as we’ve been seeing this kind of drama for many many times. Well, let’s see. My crystal ball is usually right but when everyone of you want to believe it, it’s time to go wrong. So ask yourself, whether you want to believe this drama or not?
I don’t see much edge for Friday when SPY down 6 days in a row, from the win/loss ratio, it seems the rebound could be very huge though. Just chances are such a rebound more likely is a sell opportunity as argued by the TICK chart below. So as I’ve been saying, if you’re not smart and experienced enough, try your best not to front run the market…